Warehouses were not built immediately – Newspaper Kommersant No. 16 (7461) dated 01/30/2023

Due to a drop in demand for logoparks in Moscow and the Moscow region, the volume of commissioning of such real estate in 2023 may be reduced by at least 18%. Last year, international companies that left the Russian Federation vacated warehouse space, and tenants occupied these areas, ceasing to order new facilities. Experts expect that this year the interest of tenants will continue to be directed to ready-made logoparks.

In 2023, the volume of commissioned warehouses in Moscow and the Moscow region may reach 1.6 million square meters. m, which is 18% less compared to 2022, when 1.95 million sq. m, predicted by the NF Group. Nikoliers expects that the volume of new construction will reach 1.67 million square meters. m, but do not exclude that the implementation of a number of projects may be postponed or frozen. CMWP and IBC Real Estate predict that the total area of ​​new facilities will not exceed 900,000 sq. m. m.

The reason is the contraction in demand, which began in 2022, explains the head of the department of warehouse and industrial real estate CMWP Egor Dorofeev. In 2022, the volume of demand for logoparks in Moscow and the Moscow region decreased by 40% year-on-year, to 1.67 million sq. m, says the director of the department of industrial and warehouse real estate NF Group Konstantin Fomichenko. According to him, this happened due to a decrease in the volume of built-to-suit transactions (BTS; construction of an object for a specific customer), which was the result of a sharp increase in construction costs in the second and third quarters of 2022.

Last year, the volume of transactions under this scheme decreased by six times, to 181 thousand square meters. m, he added. The main users of BTS warehouses either have an overabundance of premises or prefer gradually released high-quality objects, says Victor Afanasenko, regional director of the warehouse real estate department at Nikoliers. Some of these contracts will be signed only in 2023, and completed only next year, Orientir CEO Andrey Postnikov expects.

But developers are in no hurry to build logoparks for rent on the free market. While developers remain cautious, Mr. Postnikov explains. The fact is that in 2022, the market offered a sufficient amount of ready-to-move-in space through direct lease, sublease, as well as through the replacement of tenant companies leaving the Russian Federation, recalls Yegor Dorofeev. So, the Polish retailer LPP (brands Reserved, Cropp, Sinsay, House, Mohito) last year refused to rent 80 thousand square meters. m in “PNK Park Zhukovsky” in the Moscow region. Later, the online retailer Ozon took its place.

According to NF Group, at the end of 2021, the vacancy in the market did not exceed 0.9% of sublease offers, and by the end of June 2022 it had grown to 4%. The main activity of tenants was focused precisely on the constructed areas, adds Mr. Dorofeev. In addition, the constant fluctuation of the key rate of the Central Bank in recent years did not allow developers to be optimistic about speculative construction, notes the director of Ricci | Warehouses” Dmitry Gerastovsky.

The expectations of consultants for the commissioning of new logoparks could be lower. Alexandra Shakola, Deputy Director of Leasing and Marketing at Radius Group, says that last year the commissioning of 500,000 sq. m. was postponed to 2023. m of logoparks. While maintaining the current rate of exit, there will be a gradual movement towards the tenant market, Viktor Afanasenko believes.

For users of logoparks, flexible terms of the contract are becoming a priority, allowing them to quickly respond and transform their strategies in the context of a compressed planning horizon, says Ekaterina Nogay, head of research and analytics at IBC Real Estate. Therefore, she continues, innovative and unique own objects, the launch of which key market players were previously ready to wait for a year and a half, are fading into the background. The demand of tenants, the expert concludes, will continue to be directed to ready-made facilities, which will restrain the volume of new construction.

Daria Andrianova