War with Russian gas pipelines: Turkish Stream threatens to stop

War with Russian gas pipelines: Turkish Stream threatens to stop



The West is forcing Ankara to stop deliveries of the last gas from Russia to Europe

Europe, teetering on the brink of a fuel crisis, is progressively refusing any supplies of hydrocarbons from Russia. After the Nord Stream explosions, the Dutch authorities revoked the license from South Stream Transport, which controls Gazprom's exports to the EU through the Black Sea via Turkish Stream. Such a claim does not threaten to stop sales, but in the future, when the gas pipeline requires preventive maintenance or replacement of components, Western manufacturers may refuse to provide Russian suppliers with the necessary equipment due to sanctions.

From the summary sent by the competent authorities of the Netherlands to South Stream Transport, it is said that European regulators are forced to revoke the license from the Turkish Stream gas pipeline operator. Amsterdam refers to the EU regulation, adopted eight years ago (!), which prohibits the organization's members from supplying goods, providing services, technical assistance and maintenance of Russian projects, including those on the EU continental shelf.

“Until recently, it seemed that the Turkish branch would not be affected by Western energy sanctions against Russia,” said Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and the National Energy Security Fund. “Nevertheless, Brussels is looking for any ways to ban or limit the supply of European counterparties by our country, therefore, it retrieves documents that have long been drowned in the archives from the past, if only they would give a reason to sting Moscow.”

The TurkStream pipeline, laid from Russia to Turkey and put into operation in January 2020, with the help of two underwater lines through the Black Sea, is capable of supplying Europe with more than 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year, which are first delivered to the Turkish coast, and then in transit transported to the countries of Southern and South-Eastern Europe. The main objective of the gas pipeline was to “unload” the Ukrainian pumping system and concentrate Russian “blue fuel” on the new main export channels.

Of course, the Black Sea line will not be able to completely replace the Nord Stream system, since supplies along this route cover the needs of only Turkey itself and allow a relatively small part of the gas to be transported to consumers on the continent. However, due to the disruption of the operation of the Baltic pipeline, the Black Sea pipes now remain almost the only channel of gas communication between Russia and the European Union.

“The work of the Turkish Stream is not fundamental to the countries of Western Europe,” Yushkov explains. — The largest consumers receive Russian gas through other channels, including through LNG purchases. However, Europe continues to raise the stakes in the confrontation with Russia. Even the shutdown of the Turkish Stream will be felt by the whole world: gas prices will skyrocket. If now the quotes for a thousand cubic meters have fallen to $2,000, then in a few days the prices may soar by one and a half to two times.”

There is reason to believe that the pumping of raw materials through the Black Sea system will be restored even before the heating season in Europe, which, theoretically, should start in early October. The loss of the license, as representatives of South Stream Transport say, does not limit the continuation of hydrocarbon supplies to Europe. The company has the legal right to maintain supplies in the same volumes, since, on the basis of the EU regulation, the gas that goes through the Turkish Stream enters the national gas transportation systems of the continent and ensures the energy security of Europe. The failure of these hydrocarbon routes will cost Russia a pretty penny: Gazprom's lost profits from foreign contracts could reach several hundred million dollars.

But for the countries of South-Eastern Europe, stopping the operation of the Turkish Stream will become a huge problem that can further deepen the incredible shortage of “blue fuel” and seriously increase exchange prices for gas. In fact, Europe does not prohibit the transit of Russian gas through the Turkish Stream, but limits the repair and provision of new components, the suppliers of which are Western states. The necessary equipment and contracts for the maintenance of transit pipes are in the hands of the EU members, who, to put it mildly, have a cool relationship with Russia. Meanwhile, the fuel transported through Gazprom's Black Sea network was mainly delivered to Serbia and Hungary, which signed long-term agreements with Russia on the sale of gas, and on a ruble basis. These countries, which have agreed to remain Russia's economic partners even against the backdrop of Western sanctions, will be the first to suffer.



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