Voters supported the commander-in-chief – Newspaper Kommersant No. 168 (7369) dated 09/13/2022

On Monday, experts from the Civil Society Development Fund publicly explained the reasons for the high results of United Russia and the candidates from the authorities in these elections. According to them, the factor of the Russian special operation on the territory of Ukraine actually turned the elections into a referendum on confidence in the president, while the parliamentary opposition actually missed these elections. However, the authorities should not relax, experts warn. Next year, in their opinion, there will be no such referendums: the elections will be influenced by the consequences of sanctions and the overall socio-economic situation, and in addition, “angry patriots” can also show themselves – those who think that Russia is not consistent enough and strictly implements the decisions made during the SVO.

United Russia is satisfied with the results of the last elections. On Monday, Deputy Secretary of the United Russia General Council Sergei Perminov presented the results of calculations, according to which the party in most cases increased its representation in legislative assemblies and parliaments of administrative centers.

The round table of the Foundation for the Development of Civil Society, held on September 12, was devoted to the theme of the victory of the United Russia. “The United Russia party got one of the best results in its history,” said Konstantin Kostin, head of the foundation: United Russia won about 80% of the mandates in regional and local parliaments. Explaining the reasons for such a triumph of the ruling party, all the experts mentioned the Russian special military operation in Ukraine. The foreign policy situation and the information agenda, in fact, reformatted the elections into a referendum on confidence in power, Mr. Kostin said: by voting for United Russia and the candidates for governor supported by it, voters actually expressed their support for President Putin. In Moscow, the expert believes, the high results of power were influenced by the Muscovites’ approval of the activities of the mayor of the capital, Sergei Sobyanin: “If we take the federal factor and consider it at the city level, we understand that the candidates who were nominated from the United Russia party and from” My area”, had the advantage”.

As for the parliamentary opposition, according to Konstantin Kostin, it could also show better results, since the current socio-economic conditions provided a fairly large space for left-wing rhetoric. “Nevertheless, we see that the parties are sinking, losing their voters,” the political scientist noted.

Aleksey Chesnakov, head of the scientific council of the Center for Current Politics, believes that foreign policy events have ensured the dominance of the United Russia on the political agenda. At the federal level, the party confidently occupied the niche of supporting the special operation, and its regional branches managed to focus on local problems. “Citizens themselves perceive the social situation calmly, without extreme and extraordinary assessments,” the expert analyzes the past election campaign.

Director of Political Analysis of the Institute of Social Marketing (INSOMAR) Viktor Poturemsky noted that the SVO also affected the requests of citizens towards governors: “An emergency situation requires extraordinary competence and extraordinary responsibility, as well as an action strategy.” “The results obtained even for governors who confirm their powers this year are higher than last time. This is the result of a consensus around the figure of the president and the values ​​that he proposed,” says Ekaterina Sokolova, head of the department for strategic research and forecasting of the EISI.

Mikhail Vinogradov, President of the Petersburg Politics Foundation, notes that “extreme events (in the combat zone.— “b”) of the last days” and “the nervousness of the radical part of the activists” was not transmitted to the voters. “The results of the elections are symmetrical to what we see when looking at society,” the political scientist said. The parliamentary opposition, according to Mr. Vinogradov, largely missed this political cycle: somewhere it was due to conscious factors, somewhere with confusion. For example, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, according to Mr. Vinogradov, simply did not want to come into conflict with the authorities and take on the associated risks.

The results of the last single day of voting can both strengthen the positions of power and weaken them, experts say. “There is no need to relax… Next year the elections will no longer be held according to the model of a quiet referendum,” Mr. Kostin said. According to him, based on the imposed sanctions and economic forecasts, next year the same governors will have to show their ability to adapt to circumstances and keep the social situation under control. In addition, in this cycle, the authorities had no problems with “angry patriots” – those who believe that Russia is not tough enough and consistently achieving the stated goals of the special operation: their representatives were not on the ballots. Next year, this factor may well affect the course of the elections, Mr. Kostin analyzes.

Andrey Vinokurov