Budget revenues from the automotive industry in the form of salvage fees will not recover in the next three years. Fees from local factories will be fixed at the level of this year (205 billion rubles), being about 40% lower than a year earlier. Moreover, the relatively high amounts of industrial subsidies provided for in the budget indirectly confirm information from Kommersant's sources that the Ministry of Industry and Trade is discussing the possibility of providing them, regardless of the level of localization, to support new SKD projects. Analysts note that this would make sense in the short term to saturate the market.
In 2023, the budget, follows from his project, plans to collect 353.2 billion rubles. recycling fee from the automotive industry and special machine building. The financial and business case indicates that receipts will be higher than this year, by a modest 2.4%. But the growth is based on the already adjusted forecast, which is significantly lower than the fees in 2021 and the volumes planned for this year in the last budget. So, this year, receipts from the waste collection should have amounted to 531 billion rubles, of which, as of September 27, 158.6 billion rubles, or 29.9%, were collected. Now this amount in the project has been replaced by 344.8 billion (32.8% less than a year earlier). In 2021, the budget received 513 billion rubles. Thus, compared with the pre-crisis period, collections will fall by 31%.
Restoration of revenues is not planned for a three-year period, including from imports. In addition, real budget revenues in the form of proceeds from car imports in the Russian Federation will also grow only compared to the low base of 2022, but in reality they will decrease by 21.7% compared to the pre-crisis level, to 70.9 billion rubles. This year, they plan to collect 66.4 billion rubles from imports. In January-August, the import of new cars in the Russian Federation fell by about half - to more than 100 thousand cars, said Albert Karimov, deputy head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
In 2023, payments from cars manufactured in Russia will continue to make up the bulk of the salvage collection revenues — 205.3 billion rubles. (drop to pre-crisis by 42%).
In 2022, according to the project, they should amount to 205 billion rubles. The socio-economic forecast includes a comparable decline in the production of cars - by 42%. As Kommersant wrote on September 15, since the difference between production proceeds and compensation to auto plants (tied to the level of localization) was traditionally directed to state support, the suspension of production of foreign players led to a reduction in the volume of state support for demand in the industry planned in the project. Thus, it is planned to spend 5.1 billion rubles on preferential car loans in 2023. against 13.3 billion rubles. now, for leasing - 2.5 billion against 5.1 billion rubles, for subsidizing gas-engine equipment - 2.7 billion against 3.3 billion rubles.
At the same time, next year the volume of collections from the issue is almost equivalent to the volume of so-called industrial subsidies indicated in the project (200.2 billion rubles), which compensates for the waste collection to local players. Although the level of localization of most models at foreign automobile plants in the Russian Federation did not allow claiming full compensation, with the exception of a number of cars at Avtotor, they were at least welded and painted. And new projects - for example, "Moskvich" or a light commercial vehicle "Sollers" - start with a SKD assembly, that is, they should lose much more in scrap collection.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade did not answer Kommersant whether such a volume of funds is connected with plans to pay industrial subsidies, regardless of localization.
Kommersant's interlocutors note that the volume of industrial subsidies for the year may be reduced compared to the planned one. So, in two weeks, the amount allocated for subsidies in 2022 fell by 13.1 billion rubles to 224.6 billion rubles.
However, they are also aware of the discussion in the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the idea of relaxing compensation rules for new projects. One of Kommersant's sources emphasizes that without compensation it may be impossible to increase localization, and the scale of the required level of localization has "long gone ahead." “If there is support for new technologies - electric cars, this will not cause a critical imbalance in the industry,” another Kommersant interlocutor notes. “But the release of classic cars from obligations will destroy the entire regulatory system in the industry.”
Automotive expert Vladimir Bespalov sees the need for concessions for new projects for a limited period if they are focused on market saturation. He recalls that initially the waste tax was still only a barrier to imports.