Unsecured loans are growing – Newspaper Kommersant No. 176 (7377) of 09/23/2022
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The Central Bank expects the unsecured consumer lending market to grow by 10% by the end of the year, although in the summer it was talking about only 5%. The forecast has been improved, although the regulator itself has recently announced a tightening of requirements for issuing such loans. Banks and experts interviewed by Kommersant consider the pace generally achievable, although they note that in the new conditions, “the sector is under pressure.”
At the International Banking Forum in Kazan, the Central Bank announced a new forecast for the growth of unsecured consumer lending – by 10% in 2022. In August, according to the regulator, the increase in unsecured loans to individuals in August amounted to 1.8%, against 0.7% in July. Back in the summer, the Bank of Russia spoke about the growth of the segment by no more than 5%, and most recently announced plans to tighten requirements for banks to issue unsecured loans to citizens for a period of more than five years, as well as with a high debt burden (see “Kommersant” dated September 20).
“In recent months, high growth rates have been observed on the market – this is both the realization of pent-up demand and the recovery of consumer activity,” explains Mikhail Doronkin, Managing Director of the NKR. Another growth factor is seasonal: spending in August is growing due to vacations and preparation for school, they add to the Central Bank.
According to preliminary data Frank RG, in August the volume of issued consumer loans reached 1.1 trillion rubles, exceeding the figure for July by 28%. This result was the highest since the beginning of the year and surpassed the figure for February, when they were issued for 1.095 trillion rubles. In August, banks issued almost 2.2 million units. cash loans for 539.9 billion rubles, which is the maximum this year (see “Kommersant” of September 6).
Banks and experts interviewed by Kommersant believe that the growth rates announced by the Central Bank are generally achievable, but the sector “will be under pressure.” Vyacheslav Shalamov, head of the lending service at Post-Bank, confirms that retail lending accelerated in the second half of the year, but his optimistic growth estimate for the year is 8-9%. At the same time, the forecast for the growth of unsecured lending up to 10% in the context of high demand for borrowed funds, even in the current realities, will not affect the stability of the financial system, Dmitry Afrikanov, CEO of the Unicom ecosystem (formerly Unicom24), is sure: “The Central Bank is pursuing a balanced policy and, as practice has shown, , he manages to successfully manage risks. For comparison, in 2020, which was the peak of the pandemic, lending growth exceeded 10%.
However, in any scenario, issuance in this sector will be under pressure due to the tightening of the risk policy of banks and the introduction of new requirements, Konstantin Borodulin, director of NRA banking ratings, warns. Of course, the decisions of banks in a crisis will be more balanced, adds Dmitry Afrikanov. In addition, partial mobilization of the population may affect the dynamics of extraditions, believes Mikhail Doronkin. However, market participants and experts are not yet ready to assess exactly how this factor will affect. The Bank of Russia has already given professional lenders recommendations to provide mobilized borrowers with credit holidays or debt restructuring, and without worsening their credit history (see “Kommersant” dated September 22). This decision caused some creditors to fear an increase in defaults.
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