To declare does not mean to settle – Newspaper Kommersant No. 14 (7459) dated 01/26/2023
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Although vacancy rates are growing in the Moscow office market and rental prices are declining, developers have announced the implementation of new projects for a total of 450,000 sq. m. m. Of these, 80% falls on class A objects – the segment of the real estate market most affected by the crisis. However, consultants doubt that the announced volume of new business centers will appear in the capital.
The fact that Moscow announced the commissioning in 2023 of 473 thousand square meters. m of office space, according to a study by NF Group. But in reality, this volume may be much lower. “Last year, 43% of the originally planned volume of space was sold. This year, probably, this figure may be less,” predicts NF Group partner Maria Zimina. In this case, we are talking about 200 thousand square meters. m, which is one and a half times less than the actual volume introduced in 2022. IBC Real Estate believes that 296,000 sq. m. will be commissioned in Moscow this year. m is 13.2% lower than last year. Nikolliers is waiting for the commissioning of 65-70% of the declared 673 thousand square meters. m.
Commercial Director of Coldy Maxim Kavariants suggests that developers will adjust their plans for office projects at the stage of coordinating project documentation: “Some are already considering the possibility of converting part of the sites into apartments or housing.” In his opinion, the facilities already started are likely to be completed. Ekaterina Kosmarskaya, Deputy Head of the Research and Analytics Department at IBC Real Estate, adds that buildings under construction for further sale without preliminary agreements with tenants are at risk. Oksana Moiseeva, head of the commercial real estate department of A101 Group of Companies, believes that developers will more likely adjust their plans regarding the locations of new business centers.
If a massive freeze of projects in the office segment begins, then already in 2025 there may be a shortage of quality objects in Moscow, Stone Hedge analysts do not exclude. According to their estimates, most of the existing business centers were commissioned before 2017 and no longer meet modern requirements.
About 80% of the volume of office space declared for sale this year, according to NF Group, belongs to class A. According to the results of last year, it was this segment that suffered the most from the crisis due to the exit from the market or the reduction in the presence of foreign companies on it. In such facilities, the vacancy for the year increased from 9.5% to 13%, and this year it may increase to 15%. Denis Bobkov, head of the marketing and analytics department at Asterus, suggests that with an average vacancy in the Moscow office market of 11-13% this year in class A properties, the figure could reach 20%.
But Kirill Babichenko, head of the CORE.XP office real estate department, does not consider the current vacancy rate to be critical. According to him, now in Moscow 10.3% of the space is empty. “This is far from the level of 2014-2016, when the vacancy rate exceeded 17%,” the expert says. But the current situation puts pressure on the cost of rent. Thus, according to NF Group, over the year, rates in class A business centers decreased by 3.3%, to 26.04 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m per year, while in class B they grew by 1.2% per year, to 17.6 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. Denis Bobkov predicts a reduction in prices by another 2-3% this year, to 25.5 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m per year in class A and up to 16.6 thousand rubles. in class B. Remain CEO Dmitry Klapsha adds that during negotiations with potential tenants, discounts can reach up to 20-30%. He says that since the end of December, there has been a revival in the office market. “The tenants have reoriented their business, new players have appeared,” he notes. Elena Medushushskaya, deputy director of the office real estate department at Nikoliers, adds that January also turned out to be quite good for the office market, “unlike previous years.”
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