There are no vacant premises left in business centers

Rent growth may accelerate

At the end of the third quarter of 2024, the share of vacant space in the capital's office market was only 5.5%. This is the absolute minimum since 2008. The shortages are most acute in key business districts. According to experts, due to the start of the business season, the situation with vacant premises in Moscow business centers will become even worse in the coming months.

According to Ekaterina Belova, head of the office space department at IBC Real Estate, the current market is characterized by the most acute shortage of ready-made supply. This is felt most strongly in central locations, where there are practically no options suitable for tenants. As a result, some companies are considering properties at a high stage of construction, which is stimulating an increase in rates for some office properties under construction.

“In the sales segment, there is high activity from the public sector, as well as private investors who continue to purchase offices in business centers under construction and design,” the analyst added.

At the end of September, according to her estimates, in class A offices the vacancy rate was 6.5%, which is 5 p.p. lower than the result in the same period in 2023. Quarter to quarter, the indicator decreased by 0.4 percentage points. In class B+ offices, the share of vacancy was fixed at 4.3%, having decreased by 0.4 percentage points over the quarter. and by 1.6 p.p. year to year. The current shares of vacant space in both class A and class B+, and in the market as a whole, are the lowest in more than 15 years. The last time values ​​below were recorded was only in 2008. For the highest quality offers, intense competition among tenants remains and the speed of decision-making increases.

Based on the results of the first nine months of 2024, six buildings totaling 359 thousand square meters were put into operation in the Moscow office market. m of offices, which is almost 2 times higher than the result for the same period in 2023 and 30% more than the volume of commissioned space for the entire 2023. In the third quarter of 2024, two buildings were commissioned as part of the class A business district Skolkovo Park with an area of ​​29 thousand square meters. m of offices. This is one of the few properties available today for speculative rental with new finishes.

By the end of this year, another 185 thousand square meters may be commissioned. m of offices, and then the total volume of new construction by the end of 2024 will be at the level of 544 thousand square meters. m. This forecast has been adjusted downward in accordance with the construction stage of some projects, the commissioning dates of which may be postponed to next year. However, these expectations are almost 2 times higher than the volume of space commissioned in 2023.

The weighted average asking rental rate for the Moscow market as a whole amounted to 23.2 thousand rubles/sq.m. based on the results of the third quarter of 2024. m per year excluding VAT and operating expenses, which is 2% higher than the figure at the end of the second quarter,” Belova said. Moreover, rent has risen in price across all classes. Thus, the weighted average asking rate for Prime class offices was 43.9 thousand rubles/sq.m. m per year (excluding VAT and operating expenses), increasing by 2% compared to the results of the second quarter of 2024. The weighted average rental rate for class A was 27.5 thousand rubles/sq.m. m per year (excluding VAT and operating expenses), which is 3% higher than the result of the second quarter.

For class B+, the quarter-on-quarter growth was 1% - at the end of September this year, the weighted average rental rate was 21.8 thousand rubles / sq. m. m per year (excluding VAT and operating expenses).

Analysts believe that in conditions of high demand and a scarce market, the growth of rental rates may accelerate. The implementation of new development projects to meet demand is becoming more expensive due to rising costs against the backdrop of inflationary processes and rising costs of credit resources in the context of an increase in the key rate. As a result, according to their forecast, the growth of rental rates for Moscow offices may accelerate in October-December to the highest values ​​in the last 10 years.