The Ministry of Economic Development predicts a decline in Russia’s GDP by 2.9% in 2022
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The Ministry of Economic Development of Russia predicts that the economic recession for the current year will be 2.9%, said the head of the department Maxim Reshetnikov. According to the previous forecast, the decline in GDP could be 4.2%. By the end of 2022, the unemployment rate will increase to 4.5%, inflation at the end of the year will be 12.4%.
From the presentation of the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, it follows that the lowest point of the economic recession will be passed in the fourth quarter of this year. “In 2024–2025, GDP will grow at an average rate of 2.6% per year due to the growth of domestic demand – consumer and investment,” Mr. Reshetnikov said at a meeting of the Federation Council Committee on Economic Policy.
Inflation in the country at the end of 2022 will be 12.4%, while in 2023 it will slow down to 5.5%, and in 2024–2025 it will be at the target level of 4%. Unemployment, according to the presentation, will be 4.4% in 2023 after 4.5% at the end of this year, in 2024 it will decrease to 4.3%, and in 2025 to 4.1%.
According to the minister, the real exchange rate of the ruble in the coming years will become 10-15% stronger than over the past five years. URALS oil prices in 2023 are expected to reach $70 per barrel, in 2025 they will drop to $65.
Mr. Reshetnikov noted that the forecast is based on the scenario of continued accelerated adaptation to changing conditions. “He assumes that the economy will contract by 0.8% in 2023, mainly due to the effect of the high base of the first quarter of this year and the decrease in net exports,” the minister added.
At the end of August, the Ministry of Economy, together with other departments developed scenario for the development of the Russian economy until 2030, the main task of which was to adapt to the new sanctions conditions.
On the dynamics of the economy – in the material “Kommersant” “Demand is not enough even for supply”.
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