The euro exchange rate collapsed to 55 rubles. What to expect next?

On September 23, the dollar exchange rate at the Moscow Exchange fell to 57.5 rubles, and the euro fell below 55 rubles. As of September 24, the Central Bank set the US dollar exchange rate at 58.1 rubles, and the euro at 56.48. Will the Russian ruble continue to strengthen against these currencies, and what can prevent this? Alexey Fedorov, an analyst at TeleTrade, told Moskovskaya Pravda about this.

According to the expert, the current strengthening of the Russian currency is connected, first of all, with the active preparation of Russian raw materials export companies for the payment of mineral extraction tax (MET), which is due next Monday, September 26.

— Given that the Russian financial market remains cut off from external markets, a significant amount of foreign exchange earnings conversion by Russian exporters is becoming the most important factor in exchange rate dynamics. Unfortunately, its influence is extremely limited, because already on Tuesday, September 27, the peak of tax payments will be left behind and the ruble will begin to synchronize better with the general situation, the expert explains.

In addition, most likely, new sanctions will soon follow from the West, among which, among other things, the introduction of cap prices for Russian oil.

“This is a negative for the ruble, as the mechanism of the price ceiling increases the uncertainty regarding the oil revenues of the federal budget,” said Alexei Fedorov.

He also draws attention to the fact that the overall situation on the financial markets is generally negative:

– A strong drop in foreign stock indices, which may soon turn into a real collapse, the Russian financial market has so far mostly ignored. However, along with foreign stock indices, oil prices are also falling, which on September 23 already reached their lowest level since January 2022 – $ 85.9 per barrel of Brent.

And since the state of the oil market, through federal budget revenues, is still important for the exchange rate of the Russian currency, the fall in oil prices may begin to negatively affect the ruble as early as September 27, when the protection from the tax period will disappear.

— As for the longer-term prospects, our baseline scenario assumes that due to a further fall in oil prices to $50-60 per barrel of Brent and the need to compensate for shortfalls in federal budget revenues, the ruble will weaken. So by December 2022, the US dollar will be inclined to rise in price to 90-100.00 rubles, and the euro to 95.00-110.00 rubles, the expert announced his forecast.

Whether these predictions come true, we will see pretty soon. After all, there is not so much time left until December – only a little over two months.

Alena Bodrienko.

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