Sovcombank analysts predict the dollar at 70 rubles with an oil price of $60 per barrel

The deterioration of the geopolitical situation, energy and food crises will lead to a global economic downturn, said Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank. He also noted that recent inflation in the world has reached record levels. All this, according to Mr. Vasiliev, can weaken the Russian national currency and lead to an increase in the dollar to 70 rubles.

In an interview “Prime” Mr. Vasiliev said that due to the global recession and new sanctions against Russia, the country’s export earnings will decrease, which will put even more pressure on the ruble.

“We include in the forecast for 2023 a decrease in Urals oil prices to $60 per barrel. However, the risks for the oil price forecast are shifted down if the global recession is deeper,” the expert added.

Therefore, the analyst believes, it is reasonable for Russians to keep part of their savings in foreign currency. Cash dollars and euros, unlike non-cash ones that remain toxic due to the possible expansion of Western sanctions on the Moscow Exchange, do not contain sanctions risks, Mr. Vasiliev adds. However, he said, their purchasing power is rapidly declining amid decades of record inflation in the US and Europe.

Thus, the market for currencies of friendly countries began to develop, because they allow avoiding sanctions risks. As Mikhail Vasilyev clarified, at present, the Chinese yuan, the UAE dirham and the Hong Kong dollar remain stable against the dollar.

The countries of the European Union (EU) are currently discussing setting a price ceiling for Russian oil. The introduction of restrictions on oil from Russia is expected on December 5, on oil products – on February 5. Bloomberg wrotethat the EU countries will introduce a price ceiling for Russian oil in the range of $65-70 per barrel. The US Treasury offered to set the price at about $40-60 per barrel.

According to official exchange rate currencies of the Central Bank for today, November 25, the dollar rate is 60.4 rubles / $, the euro rate is 62.8 rubles / €.

Western countries are refusing Russian energy carriers as part of the sanctions imposed due to the Russian military operation in Ukraine. After that, the dollar and euro exchange rates slightly updated their historical highs. On March 2, the euro exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange exceeded 122 rubles/€, the dollar – above 110 rubles/$, on March 10 – 137 rubles/€ and 147 rubles/$.

The ruble began to strengthen after President Vladimir Putin instructed to transfer gas fees for “unfriendly” countries to rubles from April

First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Andrey Belousov spokethat 55–60 rubles/$ is too strong a rate for Russia. Comfortable, according to him, is the rate of 70 rubles / $. According to the head of Sberbank German Gref, problems for the Russian economy may begin at a rate below 50 rubles. per dollar.

More details – in the material “Kommersant FM” “Exporters stick to the course”.