Seven “Black Fridays” in a week

The forecasts of experts, marketplaces and retailers for Black Friday have diverged radically. Analysts at Tinkoff Kassa expect a decrease in buyer activity by almost a third, to a four-year low. Marketplaces, on the contrary, expect significant growth. Their forecasts, among other things, are based on the successful results of the sales that have already taken place in early November. However, Tinkoff Kassa and First Data claim that at that time the activity of buyers was already lower than last year. Retailers, such as Baon and Zenden, are more likely to be guided by restrained pessimistic estimates.

The number of purchases and the amount of spending on Black Friday, which starts on November 25, can be reduced by almost a third year on year, according to a study of the Tinkoff Kassa Internet acquiring service available to Kommersant. Analysts add that in this case, the interest of buyers in the stock will be minimal over the past four years.

Unlike Black Friday, sales on the Singles Day (usually held on November 11) have shown higher rates in terms of volume and number of purchases over the past four years, Tinkoff Kassa notes. According to the forecast of the service, on Black Friday, Russians will spend 20% less in amount and 37% in the number of purchases than during the sale on November 11th.

According to First Data analysts, in the week of sales in early November 2021, the number of purchases for basic goods increased by 10.27%, while during the same period in 2022 – by only 1%.

The company also notes that the number of purchases in the first week of the November sales this year decreased slightly compared to 2021. Tinkoff Kassa believes that turnover on November 11, 2022 fell by 38% year-on-year, and the number of transactions fell by 20%.

However, market participants and experts do not agree with such forecasts. Thus, Mikhail Burmistrov, CEO of Infoline-Analytics, claims that, according to preliminary estimates, during the November sales, the growth in turnover in the online segment will be 35-40%. The share of the largest marketplaces during this period will exceed 65%, the expert adds. Wildberries predict a two-fold year-on-year growth on Black Friday. Ozon notes that users stock up on home goods and buy gifts for the upcoming holidays at sales. Russians choose inexpensive goods that do not require prior savings, First Data says. The VseInstrumenty.ru online hypermarket notes that regular customers account for the bulk of purchases during the sales period.

As for the Singles Day sale, Wildberries saw a two-fold increase in revenue and orders during this period compared to last year. Ozon’s turnover during the sales in early November increased 2.2 times the average for this month. Yandex.Market notes that from November 9 to November 13, sales increased three times, and the number of orders increased 2.7 times compared to 2021. At Hoff, revenue increased by 30% yoy in early November.

However, Baon President Ilya Yaroshenko, for example, agrees with Tinkoff Kassa’s forecasts. In his opinion, the turnover and the number of purchases on this Black Friday will not exceed the level of 2019.

According to him, the decrease in the purchasing activity of Russians is affected by a drop in real incomes, a negative information background and shallow discounts from retailers due to a shortage of goods. This year, during the sales period, there is a reduction in positions in the check, the Russians refuse spontaneous purchases, the expert adds.

Alexander Sarychev, CEO of the Zenden shoe store chain, believes that in the fashion segment, retailers’ revenue during Black Friday will remain approximately at the level of 2021. But it may exceed last year’s figures in segments where significant competitors have left the Russian market, he suggests.

Nevertheless, Russians remain receptive to promotions and discounts, according to Tinkoff Kassa. According to the service, during the sale on November 11, 36% more purchases were made compared to the average value for the previous two days. Analysts estimate that this figure will increase by 11% on Black Friday.

Alina Savitskaya