Russian seismologists predicted a possible earthquake in Istanbul

Mathematical algorithms developed by Russian specialists make it possible to predict the possibility of strong earthquakes in Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city. This was announced at a press conference by Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Alexander Gorshkov (Institute of the Theory of Earthquake Prediction and Mathematical Geophysics of the Russian Academy of Sciences).

“A few years ago, the Istanbul area was recognized as a potential site for a strong earthquake,” the scientist said. – However, it is difficult to estimate whether it can happen soon.

According to Gorshkov, the algorithm for recognizing the places of strong earthquakes was created back in the Soviet years by I. Gelfand and V. Keilis-Borok; it allows one to recognize potential areas of future earthquakes at the intersections of lineaments, that is, faults and junctions of lithospheric plates. This method cannot predict exactly when an earthquake will take place in a given area, but it adequately predicts the risks of seismicity.

– Large casualties in Istanbul, of course, are possible, – said Gorshkov. – This is a city with a million or more people, and not all buildings there are seismically protected.