Regulator in the fog

This week, the Central Bank presented a draft of the main directions for the development of the Russian financial market for 2023-2025. The document identifies five vectors: creating conditions for increasing the role of the financial market in the transformation of the economy; protecting the rights of clients and increasing the availability of financial services; reorganization of foreign trade settlements; digitalization and development of payment infrastructure; ensuring financial stability.

The topics are certainly relevant, but they are described in the most general terms – in 2025 it will be very difficult to understand whether any progress has been made. Thus, in terms of the reorganization of international settlements, the Central Bank promises to create conditions for the transition to the use of the ruble and national currencies, to continue work to expand the infrastructure and develop a network of short-term relations.

There are almost no figures in the document – the appendix “Indicators for monitoring the development of the financial market” looks the most. It shows the current values ​​of such indicators as the ratio of bank assets to GDP, the level of digitalization of financial services, as well as the level of satisfaction of the population with the work of financial organizations. But in the column “expected dynamics” there is an almost philosophical meaning “growth of the indicator”. It could be argued that this is just such a general type of document. But no. There is a detailed table in the main directions of the financial market development for 2016–2018 — 10 positions, each of which lists what quantitative indicator is planned to be achieved in 2016, 2017 and 2018, and only two that do not contain figures.

In certain areas, the new document proposes to refer to strategies for the development of specific markets for a more detailed study. However, even here it is difficult to say what the Central Bank really wants to achieve by 2025. For comparison, you can look at, say, the strategy of the national payment system (NPS) – at the end of last week, clarifications were made to it precisely in terms of quantitative indicators. True, there is a period of 2022-2023, but at least some specifics.

Experts, having looked at a few figures from the Central Bank, immediately suspected the regulator of a desire to underestimate the planned indicators in order to guarantee their fulfillment. Recalling, on occasion, the experience of the SSR, when plans for the five-year plan were formed on the basis of their excess by 5-10%.

However, perhaps the explanation is much simpler: at a time when the Central Bank allows the supervised not to share even the results of their work, to disclose plans for the development of the entire financial system of the Russian Federation, and even with real guidelines, it would be the height of imprudence. The West, as you know, does not sleep, why give it a base for some new sanctions. Well, at the same time, from claims within the country, hide behind a strategic fog. That’s efficiency.