Putin called for a reduction in the share of imports: goods whose imports to Russia will decrease are named
Two categories are inviolable
By 2030, Russia should reach a share of imports of no more than 17% of GDP, Vladimir Putin said. According to experts, the goal outlined by the president looks quite achievable also due to external circumstances - sanctions are pushing the country towards this. Whether you like it or not, you will have to substitute imports: due to the obstacles imposed by the West, it is becoming increasingly difficult to import the necessary goods from abroad and pay for them even in banks of friendly jurisdictions.
“In 1999, the share of our imports reached 26% of GDP, almost 30% of everything was imported from abroad,” Putin said in his message to the Federal Assembly. - Last year it already amounted to 19% of GDP or 3 trillion rubles. And in the period until 2030, we need to reach a level of no more than 17% of GDP.”
First of all, the task is to radically increase our own production of consumer goods, medicines, equipment, machines and vehicles. At the same time, there is no need to import substitution for absolutely everything: “we cannot, and we do not need to strive for this.” “But the government knows what needs to be worked on,” Putin noted.
“In Russia, the share of imports in GDP has always been quite stable, remaining at the level of 20-21%. Fluctuations were determined mainly by the dynamics of exchange rates, says Alexey Vedev, director of the Center for Structural Research at RANEPA. – The same can be said about the structure of imports, which has not changed over many years: 30% were final consumer goods (food), 30% were investment goods (raw materials, equipment, production lines), 40% were components (household appliances) , electronics, cars) - what is called “industrial assembly”. Apparently, the share of the latter in imports will be reduced in volume, since the first two categories are inviolable.”
As for Western-made high-tech industrial products, finding an adequate replacement for them within the country is either impossible or extremely problematic. There is one of two things here: either you will have to look for analogues in the countries of Southeast Asia, or, bypassing sanctions, try to import original equipment to Russia from the same Europe. In principle, there is still time until 2030: there is no need to force the task of reducing the share of imports in GDP from the current 19% to 17%; this is a slow process in any case.
“Over the past two years, our foreign trade balance has undergone more than serious changes,” notes Igor Nikolaev, chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. – While remaining in the positive zone, the share of imports began to decline rapidly. This will continue to be the case: the sanctions pressure does not weaken, the 13th package from the European Union turned out to be quite extensive. Yes, the Russian leadership is aimed at developing import substitution. At the same time, the situation is also influenced by external conditions, for example, problems with banks, with customs of friendly countries, arising due to the threat of secondary sanctions from the United States. Difficulties with importing a large group of goods are growing. The West has identified a new priority for itself – strengthening secondary sanctions, which objectively contributes to a further reduction in imports.”
On Wednesday, February 28, the president approved the strategy for scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation by signing a corresponding decree, Nikolaev recalled. As part of the strategy, spending on science should double - from 1% to 2% of GDP. The task is difficult to accomplish (and, by the way, directly related to the implementation of the import substitution program), but here, according to the expert, something else is important: the focus on results is demonstrated not in words, but in deeds.
