Prices for apartments in Moscow collapsed

The interest of Russians in new buildings has fallen not only because of the cost per square meter that has been inflated by developers since the beginning of the pandemic. The events of recent weeks, analysts emphasize, have accelerated the deflating of the price bubble.

“Partial mobilization and the abolition of mortgages without a down payment have also contributed to the decline in demand,” says Pavel Lutsenko, director general of the World of Apartments federal portal. – Anxiety, uncertainty, the impossibility of predicting the situation in the country do not push the population to large purchases.

In the Russian capital and in the Moscow region, the cost per square meter has decreased over the past three months by 1.5-1.6% (332 thousand and 173 thousand rubles, respectively) in Sevastopol – by 5.8% (162 thousand), in Tver – by 7 .4% (99 thousand rubles).

The offer price of apartments from developers increased only in 24 cities, and fell in 46. The average price of housing in all cities is 5.8 million rubles – 1.4% lower than three months ago, say the authors of the study.

At first glance, the numbers are not too big. However, taking into account the fact that since 2020, housing in these regions has doubled in price on average, even such a slight drop in prices looks impressive. Again, we are talking about the amounts that sellers put on the “showcase”, and not about the final cost of apartments.

– After the spring increase in the key rate to 20%, mortgages died. And no actions of the Russian government have been able to revive it, even when the key rate fell to an acceptable value, – says Konstantin Barsukov, general director of Relight-Nedvizhimost. – Banks have a bad situation with mortgage holders – well, Russians cannot invest in housing with such prices and interest rates. The average rate on the secondary market is 10.5%. If the bank offers you less – 8-8.5%, do not believe it, they will cheat you somewhere. And people with real money no longer walk even in Moscow, not to mention the regions. Therefore, there is no demand.

Curiously, real estate prices have risen sharply in Novokuznetsk – by 13.6% (average cost per square meter – 95 thousand rubles), in Murmansk – by 10.3% (102 thousand rubles), in Krasnoyarsk – by 4.7% (106 thousand rubles). ) and in Barnaul – by 4.5% (99 thousand). In the remaining 20 cities, where prices have risen, the average increase in the cost of “square” – 1%. For example, in St. Petersburg housing has risen in price by 0.1% in three months, and now a square meter in the northern capital costs 224,000 rubles.

Why is there such a big difference in the Russian regions?

– Fluctuations in prices for new buildings due to banks revising the conditions for issuing mortgages, the financial condition of specific developers and falling demand. Depending on this, the discount may be different, – says Fedor Mezentsev, Director of the Real Estate Department of the Digital SNT company.

– Prices in different cities may vary for various reasons. Where they rise, an acute shortage of new buildings and underestimation of housing in general can play a role. Cheap mortgage programs and subsidized mortgages from developers (which, however, are not available in all regions), increased demand during the 3rd quarter, from July to September inclusive, Pavel Lutsenko comments.

Prices also fall for various reasons. In Sochi, new buildings, equal in cost to those in Moscow, were clearly overestimated. In Crimea, demand was reduced by the region’s security concerns. Somewhere new projects with lower prices came out. In some cities, the demand and cost of housing are falling, unable to withstand the low solvency of the population (Kirov, Chelyabinsk, Nizhny Tagil).

Inkom-Nedvizhimost notes an increase in the number of applications for the urgent sale of apartments in the secondary market from September 21 to September 25 three times. “The reason is the announcement of mobilization. The same thing happened at the beginning of the special operation in February-March, when the sellers wanted to sell the apartment as quickly as possible and get money for it in their hands, even with a significant discount from the market price. Now the average discount that they are ready to give sellers, is 10% of the cost of the apartment, the maximum is 20%,” the company’s specialists explain, emphasizing that a discount of 40-60%, which has been much talked about lately, is possible, but in rare cases.

Representatives of Inkom-Nedvizhimost agree that demand will fall by another 20% in the near future, which will also affect prices. “Under the circumstances, discounting will become widespread. Discount is the key word of the time,” the company says.

Secondary housing, according to statistics, is much cheaper than primary. In September, a square meter of “secondary housing” within the old boundaries of Moscow cost an average of 281,000 rubles – 50,000 less than in new buildings. In the suburbs, the same trend is evident – the price for a “square” in habitable houses is 140 thousand rubles.

– In fact, the cost of housing would have fallen even without political upheavals, – said the director of the Secondary Market Administration Sergei Shloma. – The market was overheated, prices were inflated, a mortgage bubble formed. The situation inevitably had to end with a decrease in prices, an outflow of buyers even without external influence. And so it happened.