Power engineers hit the ceiling – Newspaper Kommersant No. 182 (7383) dated 03.10.

Regulators continue to discuss large-scale adjustments to power selection rules. As Kommersant expected, the main change will be an increase in price parameters at competitions in order to prevent a collapse in energy companies’ revenues due to a reduction in reserves in the energy system. The annual payment for the capacity of the old generation will still fall, although not so significantly – by about 7 billion rubles, to 297 billion rubles. Energy officials insist on continuing the discussion, pointing to rising costs. The industry, however, considers “increased indexation” an unacceptable step.

“Kommersant” managed to get acquainted with the proposals of the “Market Council” (energy market regulator) on changes in the price parameters of competitive power take-off (CTO, fixes the cost of power for old generation). The regulator, in fact, proposes to raise the upper level of the price (the first point of the demand curve) on the selection to the level of costs for the modernization of turbine equipment at TPPs. The indicator will be calculated, among other things, taking into account CAPEX, OPEX and the profitability of the project (following the example of the program for the modernization of old thermal power plants).

In the first price zone (the European part of the Russian Federation and the Urals), the price ceiling, according to Kommersant, will be 243.6 thousand rubles, and in the second price zone (Siberia) – 383.5 thousand rubles. The lower price level (the second point of the curve) will be 12% lower. At the same time, the Market Council wants to change the calculation of payment depending on the load of thermal power plants: less demanded power units will receive less money, Maxim Bystrov, head of the Market Council, explained to Kommersant (see interview on this page).

Regulators have been discussing the change in the price parameters of the KOM since the summer (see Kommersant of June 20). At the next selection, the generation volumes that remain in reserve will be significantly reduced, which will inevitably lead to a decrease in the price of capacity and the revenue of power engineers: the total amount of capacity to be withdrawn will decrease, which will make it possible to select more efficient stations. Without changing the price ceiling, the price of capacity in the European part of the Russian Federation and the Urals would have fallen to 183.52 thousand rubles. for 1 MW, and in Siberia – up to 298.8 thousand rubles. For comparison: with the new approaches of the Market Council, according to Kommersant, the price of capacity for the first price zone will be about 220 thousand rubles, and for the second – 360-370 thousand rubles.

However, the total payment for capacity in KOM with an increase in price-cap will still fall, although not so significantly. According to Kommersant’s information, the total annual payment for both price zones in 2027 could be about 297 billion rubles. (in 2022 prices), which is 7 billion rubles. less than the 2026 payment indexed to inflation. The decrease in payment will occur due to the first price zone, where the indicator will decrease by 9.3 billion rubles, to 175.7 billion rubles. In Siberia, on the contrary, it can grow by 2.3 billion rubles, up to 121.7 billion rubles.

Power engineers continue to discuss new PTO parameters with regulators. “Companies have already made investment decisions and launched a large set of modernization works with a long investment cycle. The costs of events are growing, so it is impossible to sharply reduce capacity prices,” Alexandra Panina, chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Council of Energy Producers (CPE), told reporters on September 30 on the sidelines of the annual conference of the Market Council. According to her, the differentiation of payment for capacity depending on the demand for thermal power plants “looks reasonable theoretically”, however, the expenses of generating companies for repairs practically do not depend on the equipment load. Moreover, at low load, the power unit operates in a non-optimal mode, due to which the equipment wears out faster. In order to evaluate the new mechanism, in the opinion of the POC, independent consultants should be hired.

Consumers, on the other hand, believe that an increase in the CCM price ceiling is unacceptable, and a reduction in payments to idle TPPs is not enough. “A financial diet could benefit unloaded power plants to make power grid more ‘sporty’, but a more motivating cut than suggested is needed. The increased indexation of CTO price parameters to the level of modernization costs duplicates the function of selecting TPP modernization projects, unreasonably doubles the corresponding consumer payments, simultaneously increasing the excess profits of NPPs and HPPs and actually nullifying the effect of differentiated payment for unloaded TPPs, ”the Community of Energy Consumers says.

Polina Smertina