Oncoming traffic – Newspaper Kommersant No. 21 (7466) dated 02/06/2023

In the near future, President Vladimir Putin will hold a series of traditional meetings with the governors, whose terms of office expire this year. An audience with the head of state, as a rule, means that the head of the region will run for a new term, even if there is no public talk about it. Among those with whom, according to Kommersant, such conversations are already planned, are the governor of the Samara region Dmitry Azarov, the head of the Voronezh region Alexander Gusev, the head of Primorye Oleg Kozhemyako.

In the near future, Vladimir Putin will meet with the head of the Samara Region, Dmitry Azarov. According to a well-informed Kommersant source, the Samara governor is now in mandatory quarantine for such events. Also, “in the coming weeks” the president will meet with Voronezh Governor Alexander Gusev, according to Kommersant’s interlocutor in the regional authorities. According to him, information about this is in the government of the Voronezh region, but the specific date of the event has not yet been communicated to officials.

The powers of Messrs. Azarov and Gusev, as well as 19 other Russian governors, expire in September 2023. Some of them, such as the head of Yakutia, Aisen Nikolaev, and the head of the Pskov region, Mikhail Vedernikov, have already announced their intention to run for a new term. However, the decision to continue or end their gubernatorial career will traditionally be made by the federal center. A public meeting with the head of state in such a situation, as a rule, means that the governor has received the green light to start his election campaign.

The first such conversation this year took place on January 16, when Vladimir Putin spoke with the head of the Novosibirsk region, Andrey Travnikov, who is also up for re-election in September. Earlier, Mr. Travnikov told reporters that he had made a decision about his participation in the elections, but refused to announce it, citing a special operation.

In the near future, the president will meet with the head of the Primorsky Territory, Oleg Kozhemyako, a Kommersant source in the regional authorities said. Kommersant’s interlocutor, surrounded by the Oryol governor Andrei Klychkov (KPRF), expressed confidence that the communist would also receive an audience with the head of state, but a little later – “after the message to the Federal Assembly.” Finally, “in the near future” they are waiting for a similar event in the entourage of the governor of the Nizhny Novgorod region Gleb Nikitin, an informed source told Kommersant.

But in a number of other regions, where governors have been finalizing the last six months of their powers, there is still no information about meetings with Vladimir Putin. For example, the sources of Kommersant in the Omsk region, which is led by Alexander Burkov (A Just Russia – For Truth), and in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, which is headed by United Russia Alexander Uss, have not yet heard of such plans.

According to Kommersant’s knowledgeable sources, the presidential administration (AP) assesses the situation of Alexander Uss and the head of Khakassia, Valentin Konovalov (KPRF), the worst. However, in both cases, Kommersant’s interlocutors do not predict unequivocal resignations. Mr. Uss has very strong patrons, one of Kommersant’s sources explains. The positions of the communist Konovalov are much more vulnerable: he headed the republic in 2018, defeating the current head of the region, the United Russia (ER) nominee Viktor Zimin. Since then, Kommersant sources close to the Presidential Administration have repeatedly spoken about the possible resignation of the head of Khakassia, but now, according to two informed Kommersant interlocutors, another option is also possible. In Khakassia, competitive elections may be held, in which Sergei Sokol, a State Duma deputy from United Russia, who is currently participating in a special military operation, will be nominated against the communist. Such a scenario was recently discussed at a round table of the Expert Institute for Social Research.

Another Kommersant source close to the Presidential Administration and an interlocutor close to the leadership of the United Russia believe that some replacements of the heads of regions can still take place, but closer to the elections. In addition, Kommersant’s sources remind that there have long been rumors about the resignation of the head of Chukotka, Roman Kopin, who has held this post since 2008. Earlier, Vedomosti reported that the Chukotka leader himself was not against leaving. Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov did not answer relevant questions from Kommersant on Sunday.

Since the 2000s, it has become a rule that a public meeting of the president with the head of a subject whose term of office is coming to an end means a guaranteed nomination of this politician for the next term, says Vitaly Ivanov, an expert in the field of regional politics. But even if such a meeting does not take place, this does not nullify the chances of the governor for re-election, he stipulates: “There were cases when there was no meeting, and the head went to the polls. Then the meeting was held during the campaign. For example, this happened to the Governor of the Volgograd Region Andrey Bocharov in 2019.” The likelihood that there will be gubernatorial resignations before the regional elections, according to the expert, is “extremely low.” And the point here is not only in the special operation, but also in the fact that among the heads whose terms of office are expiring, there are practically no “stayed up”: only Mr. Kopin can be attributed to those, Mr. Ivanov adds.

The head of the Civil Society Development Foundation, Konstantin Kostin, agrees that meetings with the president are an important tradition of “political initiation” of the governor before the elections. And although it happened that the governor went to the polls without her, these are rather exceptions that confirm the rule, the expert believes. At the same time, such a conversation also has a purely pragmatic goal: such a meeting is actually a signal for representatives of both the federal and regional elites that the politician has the support of the president, Mr. Kostin explains. “The absence of a meeting greatly complicates the organization of the campaign, complicates the electoral and intra-elite situation,” he emphasizes. At the same time, the dates of specific meetings are highly dependent on the schedule of the head of state, and in the past few years, due to the pandemic, this process has become more extended in time, the political scientist states. Therefore, if the meeting is not announced for February-March, this does not mean that it will not take place closer to the beginning of the election campaign. The expert also notes that in the current electoral cycle, the population does not have a significant demand for change: “In the current conditions, people are ready for a certain conservation.” And this means that if the Kremlin decides to replace the governors, it will most likely be based on the effectiveness of the state administration system built in the region, which is monitored by the Presidential Administration and the government, sums up Konstantin Kostin.

Andrey Vinokurov, Andrey Ashes, corset “Kommersant”