Oil revenues are prescribed to be more modest – Newspaper Kommersant No. 182 (7383) dated 03.10.2022
[ad_1]
Reducing federal budget revenues in 2023 compared to 2022 by more than 1.5 trillion rubles. due to the decline in oil and gas revenues, other fees, according to government expectations, should increase. However, forecasts for oil and gas revenues are very conditional, since real fees will greatly depend on the global situation, geopolitical news and the ruble exchange rate.
Recall that the draft budget submitted to the State Duma on September 28 (see Kommersant for September 29) assumes a reduction in its revenue side in 2023 by 1.563 trillion rubles: if revenues are estimated this year at 27.693 trillion rubles, next year they will amount to RUB 26.13 trillion Income will also fall in relative terms, from 19% to 17.4% of GDP. The entire reduction will come from oil and gas revenues. They will decrease from 11.666 trillion rubles. up to 8.939 trillion rubles. (by 2.727 trillion rubles) – from 8% to 6% of GDP. For other incomes, growth is projected – from 16.027 trillion to 17.191 trillion rubles. (plus 1.164 trillion rubles), from 11% to 11.5% of GDP.
The fall in oil and gas revenues is broken down into two large components. This is the impact of the macroeconomic situation – minus 2.436 trillion rubles. and the impact of changes in legislation – minus 291 billion rubles. Macroeconomics refers to three factors: the decline in oil and gas prices, the exchange rate of the ruble and the reduction in production, processing and exports.
In particular, on the decrease in the price of Urals, the budget, according to the Ministry of Finance, will lose 1.247 trillion rubles in 2023. The cost of Russian oil, according to the macro forecast, will decrease from $80 per barrel this year to $70.1 next. And this, as follows from the explanations to the budget, will be “to blame” not for the embargo planned by the EU for December on oil and oil products from the Russian Federation (it is assumed that this event has already been “played out” by the markets), but for the transformation of the global energy market and the slowdown in the global economy.
The second factor is that the ruble exchange rate will “take away” another 420 billion rubles from oil and gas revenues. At the same time, according to the expectations of the White House, its strengthening will be minimal – from 68.1 rubles/$ this year to 68.3 rubles/$ next. The oil embargo will become part of the third factor of decline: “changes in the volume of production, refining and export” of oil and gas is another minus 426 billion rubles. Oil production is expected to decline from 515 million tons in 2022 to 490 million tons in 2023.
[ad_2]
Source link
