New car sales rise to record levels ahead of rate hike
In anticipation of an expected rise in prices due to increased recycling rates, sales of new passenger cars set a new monthly record in September. In 28 days, 153.5 thousand cars were sold, which was the maximum over the last almost three and a half years. Some dealers expect increased demand to continue in October, while others are preparing for a reduction in the rush.
From September 23 to 29, sales of new passenger cars in Russia increased by 14% week-on-week, to 41.7 thousand units, Autostat calculated. This is the best result since the agency began maintaining weekly statistics, that is, since 2022. From September 2 to 8, 38.1 thousand new cars were sold, from September 9 to 15 - 37 thousand, from September 16 to 22 - 36.7 thousand. Thus, in 28 days of September, 153.5 thousand new cars were sold, which is 3.7% higher than the result of the entire August (see “Kommersant” dated September 5).
According to Kommersant’s calculations, based on average daily sales in the first and last week of the month, almost 165 thousand new passenger cars could have been sold for the entire month, including September 1 and 30.
This is a record result over the past almost three and a half years. More new passenger cars were sold in one month only in April 2021 - 171.5 thousand units. Since then, monthly market volumes have not exceeded the 150 thousand cars mark.
Vladimir Bespalov from Euler Analytical Technologies notes that the increased demand for new passenger cars in September is associated with expectations of a likely price increase after the recycling fee is increased from October 1. “September will be a record month due to the fueled demand for news about the growth of recycling collection, activity was visible for all brands and models without exception,” agrees Renat Tyukteev, deputy general director of Avilon AG for sales of new cars.
This year’s record sales were reported to Kommersant at Rolf, Avilon and Autospetscentre. General Director of the Avtospetstsentr Group of Companies Andrey Terlyukevich notes that September is a month with traditionally low demand. He noticed an increase in sales of almost all crossover models. Director of the Rolf new car sales department Nikolai Ivanov records an increase in demand for cars of Chinese brands. The company's best-selling brands in September were Haval Jolion, Chery Tiggo 7, and Omoda C5. According to him, customers also began to quickly make decisions about purchasing cars from brands that have left the Russian Federation. Traffic in parallel import shops increased by 30% in September, and the conclusion of sales and purchase agreements increased by 15%, clarifies Mr. Ivanov.
Mr. Tyukteev believes that in October the situation with demand for cars will be similar to September, but at a calmer pace.
“Demand will continue to shift towards automakers from China, the market for localized brands will further develop on its own separate track,” he says. BorisHof also believes that sales in October will remain at the September level. “Customers are now trying to either buy or fix the terms of purchase before October 1, since some of the cars cleared through customs will arrive at dealerships only in October,” the company says. They expect that demand will shift towards cars whose price has not changed or changed slightly against the general background. Also, cars with local assembly will attract more attention, the company believes. The excitement in the BorisHof salons is expected to continue until mid-October. Rolf sees no reason for demand to decline until the end of the year.
Although Andrei Terlyukevich does not expect sales growth in the new car market in October compared to September: “I think that registrations in the second half of October will be lower than the same indicators in September.” According to him, September “pulled away” some of the potential sales of October and, possibly, November. Next month, Mr. Terlyukevich expects, the focus of demand will shift to brands and models that have maintained September prices. Vladimir Bespalov also believes that in October sales volume will be lower compared to September. “I think there will be a decline closer to 100 thousand units,” he predicts.
They try on support for demand
It is planned to allocate 18.06 billion rubles in 2025 to support the demand for domestic cars - preferential car lending and leasing programs. and 11 billion rubles. accordingly, it follows from the explanatory note to the draft budget for 2025 and the period 2026–2027. In 2026–2027, it is planned to allocate 19.72 billion rubles for preferential car loans. per year, financing of preferential leasing remains at the level of 11 billion rubles. per year.
The head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Anton Alikhanov, told Interfax that in 2025 the ministry expects to allocate 23 billion rubles for the program of preferential car loans, and 11 billion rubles for preferential leasing. These indicators are fixed in the budget for the current year and the forecast period 2025–2026.
The preferential car loan program is considered one of the main drivers of domestic car sales. It applies to cars worth up to 2 million rubles. These are all Lada, UAZ, GAZ models with a gross weight of up to 3.5 tons, as well as Haval Jolion, produced in the Tula region. It can be used by education workers, medical institutions, SVO participants and members of their families, persons with disabilities, families with a child living in the Far East. As part of the program, all categories of citizens can also purchase electric cars made in Russia with a 35% discount: Evolute, Moskvich 3E and Amberauto A5.
Initially, 17.3 billion rubles were allocated for the preferential car lending program in 2024, and 9 billion rubles for preferential leasing. The amount of funds allocated for car loans ended in June, reported the head of AvtoVAZ, Maxim Sokolov. On the day of publication of the government decree on increasing recycling rates - September 13 - the Ministry of Industry and Trade announced the allocation of another 6.5 billion rubles for preferential car loans, and another 8 billion rubles for preferential leasing. According to the ministry, with additional funds, more than 36 thousand cars can be sold in addition to the 82 thousand already sold.
The draft budget also includes an increase in funds received from the indexation of recycling collection. In 2025 - up to 2.01 trillion rubles, in 2026 - up to 2.45 trillion rubles, in 2027 - up to 2.71 trillion rubles. In 2024, the amount of the fee was estimated at 1.07 trillion rubles.
