Natalya Skorlygina about the Turkic dependence of Russian logistics

Natalya Skorlygina about the Turkic dependence of Russian logistics



Few people were waiting for the results of the Turkish presidential elections with such trepidation as Russian exporters, importers and the transport industry. The news that incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan defeated opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and, separately, that the election results are not in doubt, dropped the Turkish lira, but caused great enthusiasm among Russian traders.

Turkey is one of Russia's main trading partners and certainly the only NATO member country that not only maintained, but also strengthened ties with Moscow after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine. This made the solution of important issues for the Russian Federation dependent on Turkish domestic policy. Contradictions on the Russian question between rivals in the elections clearly stood out in the course of preparations for them. Thus, Mr. Kilichdaroglu accused the current leader of the country of kowtowing before Moscow, and Mr. Erdogan predicted sanctions for Russia if an opponent came to power, promising to continue the previous policy in the event of his own victory.

Foreign trade logistics is probably the main branch of the Russian economy, shuddering every time Turkey sneezes. Both tourism and nuclear energy are in a more protected zone, and as for gas cooperation and the Turkish hub project, so far this story is devoid of any specific content and in any case cannot become any significant replacement for the share lost by Gazprom the EU market.

In logistics, however, every turn of Turkish policy is felt with a minimum lag - to recall at least a ten-day ban on transit through Turkey in March (see Kommersant on March 10), which was formally explained by a technical failure, but was never lifted completely. Experts then talked about the bidding around the grain deal, pressure on Ankara from Brussels and Washington, and the uncertainty of Turkey's domestic policy.

Before the elections, the logistics were predictably shaking again. “Optimalog” in its Telegram channel says that during the pre-election week, the period of transactions in Turkish banks increased sharply, and at the end of last week, bank employees allegedly told the company to suspend all foreign currency payments altogether. As soon as the official results of the second round of the presidential elections became known, everything magically improved.

Erdogan's victory is certainly a good sign for Russian logisticians and a guarantee of some stability. But with increased dependence, the sensitivity of the transport market to the slightest fluctuations in Turkish policy will also grow. Moreover, most players now agree that "sooner or later we will lose Turkey as a supply channel for European goods, the only question is when this will happen."



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