Much is not expected from world trade - Newspaper Kommersant No. 185 (7386) of 10/06/2022

Much is not expected from world trade - Newspaper Kommersant No. 185 (7386) of 10/06/2022



The volume of world trade in 2022 will increase by 3.5% compared to 2021, the World Trade Organization (WTO) expects. Six months ago, this indicator was predicted by its experts at the level of 3% - the revision of expectations is associated with a sharp increase in money turnover in the world due to the rise in the cost of energy resources and food. Next year, the growth may be only 1% instead of the previously expected 3.4% - the slowdown in trade will occur against the backdrop of a decrease in business activity in the world's largest economies, including Europe, the United States and China.

World trade will add 3.5% this year - WTO forecast, thus markedly improved compared to April's 3%. Next year, however, the increase will be only 1% instead of the previously expected 3.4%. It should be noted that according to the forecast for this year, the organization gives a “fork” of 2-4.9% growth, and the next year the possible range of turnover changes is even wider - from minus 2.8% in case of negative risks to plus 4.6 % with positive "surprises".

The WTO baseline forecast provides for an increase in global GDP by 2.8% in 2022 and by 2.3% in 2023 (the latest estimate is reduced from 3.2%).

In Europe, the decline in business activity will be associated with rising energy prices, in the US - with a tightening of monetary policy (this affects the housing market, demand for cars and capital investment), in China - with weakening external demand and the impact of anti-COVID restrictions.

The CIS+ countries are expected to face the largest decline in turnover this year (for analysis purposes, this region includes not only the Commonwealth states, but also Ukraine, Georgia and Turkmenistan). Their trade in goods in April-June fell by 10.4% qoq, imports fell by 21.7%. In general, for the year, the region is expected to reduce exports by 5.8%, imports - by 24.7%. The most significant growth in trade this year will be observed in the Middle East - exports will grow by 14.6%, imports - by 11.1%. In Europe, exports will grow by 1.8%, imports by 5.4%. In North America - by 3.4% and 8.5%, respectively.

In the second quarter, against the background of accelerating inflation, the turnover of world trade in monetary terms, according to WTO data, increased by 17%.

At the same time, energy prices reached an annual growth of 78% by August (including the cost of gas increased by 250%, oil - by 36%). Food prices rose by 11% (including grain prices by 15%). The increase in prices for fertilizers is 60%, since 2020 they have already tripled, a decrease in their use may adversely affect next year's harvest, the organization warns.

It should be noted that the reduction in energy prices will be hampered by the reduction of quotas within OPEC + - on Wednesday, the participating countries agreed reduction of the production ceiling by 2 million barrels per day. At the same time, fuel importers, in particular Turkey, have already faced a sharp increase in the trade balance deficit - in September, according to the statement of the Ministry of Trade of this country, it increased to $10.4 billion, while in total from January to August, the trade deficit in goods amounted to $73.4 billion against $29.8 billion a year earlier (this is not a record value of the indicator; in general, Turkish trade is very volatile - in 2013 the deficit was $99.3 billion).

Tatyana Edovina



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