Mortgage is making plans - Newspaper Kommersant No. 222 (7423) dated 11/30/2022

Mortgage is making plans - Newspaper Kommersant No. 222 (7423) dated 11/30/2022



The dynamics of the mortgage lending market until the end of the year and in 2023 will depend on the decision to extend the state program of preferential mortgages. Earlier, both the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance were against this, but, as it turned out, the discussion is not over: the regulator collects market participants' forecasts regarding the consequences of closing the program.

At the end of 2022, banks will reduce the issuance of mortgage loans by 20%, to 4.7 trillion rubles. at an average rate of 7.2%, but next year the figure will rise again, said Olga Filippova, Head of Mortgage at Frank RG. “In 2023, the issuance of a mortgage may amount to 5.4 trillion rubles, and the weighted average rate on it is 9%,” believes Ms. Filippova. Thus, according to Frank RG forecasts, the growth in issuance in 2023 will be 14% against a decrease of 19% in 2022 (compared to 2021). These estimates are based on the assumption that the government's subsidized mortgage program will not be extended.

According to the Central Bank, by the end of October, banks have already slowed down the growth of the mortgage portfolio to 1.8% from 2.3% in September, which is associated with increased uncertainty for both borrowers and credit institutions. Issuance of mortgages in October decreased by 13%, to 448 billion rubles. (518 billion rubles in September). The largest decline was noted in the primary mortgage segment - a decline of 23%, while in the secondary market the reduction was 5%. At the same time, as a result of a shift in borrower demand towards secondary housing, according to VTB, the average mortgage rate in Russia has already begun to grow - from June to September, the indicator increased by about 0.5 percentage points.

The impact of the state program on the mortgage market should not be underestimated, the bankers emphasize. According to Anastasia Yakupova, head of the Mortgage Lending Directorate at Alfa-Bank, “it is premature to close the program now, since in 2022 a record number of housing was built and at the same time the maximum number of unsold housing is about 40%. It is advisable to extend the preferential mortgage for the next year, perhaps by making it more targeted, they agree at Otkritie Bank.

“The decision on the future of mortgages with state support should be as balanced as possible and meet the current needs of the market,” said Anatoly Pechatnikov, Deputy Chairman of the Management Board of VTB, at the end of November. ".

The Central Bank understands the risks of canceling the preferential mortgage program and approaches the decision with caution. “We launched a survey of banks on their vision of the mortgage market in 2023 in the event of a planned completion of the preferential mortgage program,” the regulator explained. “It is still premature to evaluate the results.” Earlier, both the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance noted that they did not see the need to extend the mass preferential mortgage, and the Ministry of Construction is in favor of extending the state program at 7%. According to Kommersant's interlocutors close to the government, discussions about extending the program are still ongoing.

Experts interviewed by Kommersant believe that if the state program is completed, the market will experience a surge in demand this year and a fall next year. Thus, Yegor Lopatin, Deputy Director of the NKR Financial Institutions Ratings Group, notes that, depending on the final decision of the government ... the disbursements for the current year may amount to 4.6-4.7 trillion rubles. (in the event of its extension) and up to 5 trillion (in the event of its completion on January 1). Expert RA Banking Ratings Director Lyudmila Kozhekina believes that in the fourth quarter of 2022, the issuance of mortgages may accelerate due to the discussed completion of the program.

At the same time, Elena Trofimova, Director of the Product Development and Customer Service Department at Novikombank, believes that mortgage growth will be about 15-17% in 2023 even if the preferential program is cancelled.

Ksenia Dementieva, Maxim Builov



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