Leaders less – Newspaper Kommersant No. 20 (7465) dated 02/03/2023

For the first time, ad revenue from influencers showed a drop at the end of the year: according to Perfluence, in 2022 it was 5%. Bloggers and celebrities have lost Western advertisers, but experts say the main factor is the blocking of Instagram (Meta’s activities on Instagram and Facebook have been declared extremist in Russia and banned), after which large companies partially redirected their budgets to Telegram. In 2023, the market may return to growth through short videos and Chinese investor budgets. But the negative factor will be the new labeling requirements for advertising.

Kommersant got acquainted with a study of the influencer marketing market (promotion through opinion leaders, including bloggers) in the Russian Federation of the Perfluence platform (it has 350,000 registered bloggers). It follows from it that in 2022 the turnover of the segment showed a drop by 5%, to 15 billion rubles. In previous years, rapid growth was observed here: in 2021 – by 45%, in 2020 – by 63%. The legal income of bloggers from advertising on different platforms, including Instagram, Telegram, YouTube, etc., was taken into account.

The strongest market drop, according to analysts, occurred in the second quarter of 2022, when turnover on average decreased by more than 50%. This happened against the backdrop of a decrease in the activity of advertisers, blocking Instagram, introducing restrictions for Russian users on TikTok, as well as the withdrawal of Western brands (PepsiCo, Nestle, Mars Russia, Procter & Gamble, L’Oreal, etc. .). By the end of the third quarter, the market returned to growth of 15–20% compared to 2021. “Thanks to the fourth quarter, many have already been able to return the volumes of 2021 and increase performance,” the study notes.

According to Perfluence, in 2022 there was a significant redistribution of the budget of advertisers across social networks: Instagram’s share of all influencer accruals decreased from 67% to 30%. TikTok in advertiser spending fell from 2.31% to 0.77%.

The leading position in the segment was occupied by Telegram — 49% of the total volume of payments (a year earlier it accounted for 18%). The share of VKontakte increased from 13% to 20%.

The cost of promotion through YouTube bloggers increased from 1.69% to 3.57% (YouTube has limited monetization for Russian users, but advertisers buy ads directly from YouTube bloggers).

Advertising market participants confirm the decline in the segment at the end of the year. Admitad Russia believes that the situation is even worse and the drop exceeded 20% “even according to conservative estimates.”

According to RA SA Media, we are talking about 10-20%. “We consider Instagram blocking to be a key factor,” says Nikita Pribylovsky, chief executive of the company. The recognition of Meta as extremist led to the fact that only small and medium-sized businesses remained on Instagram, TitTok actually left the market, the largest YouTube bloggers were declared foreign agents, says Andrei Koval, Deputy Managing Director of OKKAM Creative: “The inventory factor had a key impact.”

“The increased activity of content creators in Telegram and VKontakte could not cover the overall decline,” says Ekaterina Bibik, head of the affiliate network. The press service of VKontakte told Kommersant that the revenue of publics using social network monetization tools increased by 87% year-on-year in 2022.

However, the market looks at this year with optimism. In 2023, the industry will return to the growth rate of previous periods and “significantly exceed them,” according to Perfluence. “The market has warmed up, and bloggers’ incomes are growing by 10–15% monthly, this is facilitated by the demand for short vertical videos and the budgets of Chinese companies that consider such advertising an effective resource,” Mark Khludnev, founder of Digital Church advertising agency, is also optimistic. Andriy Koval, at the same time, does not believe that in 2023 the income of influencers will be able to reach the level of 2021: “The key problem is inventory, not demand.”

In 2023, the market will be affected by a new regulation, namely the ad labeling law, which obliges bloggers to label every paid posting as an ad, experts remind. So far, not everyone is fully complying with the new requirements, Anna Kozyreva, head of the OMD OM Group social media marketing department, added. Elena Ermakova, executive director of Havas Media (ADV group), hopes that the market will be influenced by the strengthening of local businesses and a return to the activity of global brands.

Valeria Lebedeva