Landlords prepared for mobilization – Business – Kommersant

A new wave of shocks led to a decrease in prices for long-term rentals: in the largest cities, at the end of September, average rates for one-room apartments fell by 2%, and demand fell by 15% relative to the background values. The volume of supply is growing, in particular, due to the owners who rent out their apartments, leaving the city of residence. Further dynamics is tied to the geopolitical situation, but nevertheless, its participants do not expect a sharp collapse of the market, counting on a gradual recovery in demand.

The average cost of long-term rental of one-room apartments in 16 largest cities of the country at the end of September amounted to 22 thousand rubles. per month, two-room apartments – 34.5 thousand rubles. In the first case, the indicator fell by 2% after the authorities announced partial mobilization, in the second case it showed a slight increase – by 0.2%. Such data is provided by Cyan.Analytics. But it is still impossible to talk about intelligible dynamics: in the first three weeks of September, the average cost of long-term rent showed the usual seasonal growth for this period, experts warn. The thesis fits into the data of the company “Etazhi”, according to which the average cost of renting “odnushki” for the month increased by 2.6%, to 21.6 thousand rubles. per month, “dvushki” – increased by 1.6%, to 26.7 thousand rubles. per month.

The most pronounced decrease average rental price at the end of September occurred In Nizhniy Novgorod, where one-room apartments fell in price immediately by 9%, to 19.9 thousand rubles. per month, according to the calculations of Cyan.Analytics. In Omsk the decrease was 8%, to 15.2 thousand rubles. per month, in Krasnoyarsk – 6%, up to 19.4 thousand rubles. In Voronezh and Chelyabinsk average prices for “odnushki” lost 5% in 10 days of September, falling to 16.4 thousand rubles. and 14.8 thousand rubles. per month, respectively.

At the same time, according to the observations of “Etazhy”, in 4 out of 16 cities it is now possible to rent a one-room apartment cheaper than in the same period last year.

This is due to the overheated state of the market last fall: then the business season after the removal of pandemic restrictions began very actively. Among the leaders in price reduction in the annual dynamics was St. Petersburg, where the average rental price of one-room apartments, according to the estimates of “Etazh”, decreased by almost 12%, to 31.5 thousand rubles. per month.

Similar dynamics, according to Cyan.Analytics, in Moscow. The average cost of renting a one-room apartment at the end of September amounted to 48.9 thousand rubles. per month. Relative to August, the indicator decreased by 2%, compared to September last year – by 6%. Oksana Polyakova, deputy director of the apartment rental department at Inkom-Nedvizhimost, states that there is no talk of mass discounts yet, but the owners are now clearly not inclined to raise prices. “We do not observe a sharp outflow of tenants, the market is quiet, demand in the budget segment is formed mainly by people from neighboring countries,” she notes.

Although in the high-budget rental segment, according to the observations of Apple Real Estate CEO Danila Savchenko, after September 21, some properties in Moscow are already leased with 15-30% discounts. “Someone promptly leaves and is ready to provide big discounts, the current situation is comparable to February, when demand and prices fell sharply against the backdrop of panic,” he notes. The activity of potential tenants, according to the expert, decreased by 50% at the end of September. “Clients who began to return to rent in July-August are now terminating their contracts: they are leaving for other regions, countries or choosing cheaper apartments,” Mr. Savchenko explains.

Potential rental demand (the number of ad views and calls) is now generally lower than in early September, and is 15% behind the background values, says Alexei Popov, head of Cyan.Analytics. But the expert draws attention to the fact that in the sales segment this decline is even more noticeable – 30%. “Someone, against the backdrop of new life circumstances, accelerated the search for options in the rental housing market and the conclusion of a deal,” the expert suggests. At the same time, the volume of rental supply at the end of September, according to Mr. Popov, increased by 14% compared to the middle of the month. The dynamics is affected by both seasonality and the entry into the market of apartments, whose owners decided to leave the city of residence.

Alexander Ivanov, a leading analyst at Etazhi, notes the growing demand for trust management of real estate: “When leaving, the owners hand over their apartments for further renting out, but so far this is not widespread.” In general, he calls the market situation turbulent. The general instability, the growth of supply, according to him, encourage apartment owners to meet potential tenants, providing discounts or reducing the cost.

At the same time, the market keeps the activity of tenants from a sharp drop in demand, who rented apartments on the wave of high rates and are now considering more affordable options for moving.

The dynamics of rates, according to Alexander Ivanov, is now completely dependent on the geopolitical situation. “In those cities where the volume of supply continues to grow, naturally, rates will decrease and may well roll back to the levels of the first half of 2021,” he argues. Although Oksana Polyakova does not see the prerequisites for a fundamental change in the situation on the rental market at the moment. Price reduction, according to her, is possible only after a massive outflow of tenants and early termination of existing contracts. Danila Savchenko has no doubts that demand will recover in the high-budget rental segment by November-December: “People need to live somewhere, so they won’t stop renting, many are now considering renting for themselves, as they are not ready to part with large amounts of cash or take out a mortgage” .

Alexandra Mertsalova