It will take months to restore Nord Stream supplies

The expert assessed the timing of the restoration of the export pipeline

The unforeseen happened on the route of Russian gas supplies to Europe: three strings of offshore gas pipelines of the Nord Stream system were partially destroyed at once. It is possible that the cause was sabotage. Only the fact that the pipes were not used for industrial purposes saved from a large-scale catastrophe: Nord Stream-1 was stopped for preventive maintenance, and Nord Stream-2 is not used due to sanctions against Moscow. TeleTrade chief analyst Mark Goykhman shared his opinion on the causes and consequences of this unprecedented event with MK.

– What are the consequences of the destruction that occurred on three lines of the Nord Stream at once?

– Damage simultaneously on three strings of the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 systems makes it impossible to pump gas through them from Russia. The world, which does not believe in coincidences, is discussing the possibility of targeted sabotage on underwater highways in Europe. The timing of the restoration of gas pipelines is still impossible to predict. There is a possibility that deliveries on them will not resume in the coming months.

– How will such a cessation of imports affect the situation with the supply of fuel to Europe?

– While it is also difficult to assess. In fact, Nord Stream 1 stopped deliveries back in the summer due to turbine failures, while Nord Stream 2 was never launched. It was expected that the first of them will restore work, albeit not at full capacity, in the coming months. However, this has not happened and is unlikely to happen soon.

– Will this be a blow to Europe in light of the approaching winter cold?

– In principle, the EU was preparing to reduce its dependence on Russian gas. There are new terminals for receiving liquefied fuel and the import of this type of energy resources is increasing. Including Russian LNG, which is resold to Europe by Chinese intermediaries. Internal European local gas pipelines are being built, allowing the redistribution of fuel between different countries, mothballed nuclear and coal plants are being put into operation.

And yet, the situation for the winter months, when abnormal summer heat will be replaced by abnormal winter frosts, especially in connection with breakdowns of the Russian export gas transmission system Nord Stream, remains extremely tense in Europe.

– In recent weeks, the price of gas in Europe has been declining due to information about the shock filling of underground gas storage facilities. Immediately after the information about the destruction of the Nord Stream, it soared by 10%. What will happen to fuel prices for Europe next?

– The price of gas in Europe has recently been less determined by the lack of filling storage facilities and adverse weather conditions. The heat and drought disappear with the onset of autumn. In turn, the occupancy of European UGS facilities as of September 24 reached 87.4%, which is quite acceptable for this period, and is successfully moving towards the target level of 90-95%. This contributed to an almost two-fold decline in quotations in September from panic highs in August in the region of $3,500 per thousand cubic meters.

It is worth noting that the strong tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve and other world Central Banks, which in this way intend to cope with inflation and prevent a recession, has recently been pressing sharply on commodity quotes. It can be concluded that gas prices in Europe have begun to follow the general direction of the commodity and financial markets to a greater extent.

Read the material “Sabotage against Nord Stream: who could blow up the pipes at the bottom”