It is difficult for new buildings without loans - Newspaper Kommersant No. 184 (7385) of 10/05/2022

It is difficult for new buildings without loans - Newspaper Kommersant No. 184 (7385) of 10/05/2022



Housing developers, contrary to seasonal expectations of the beginning of autumn, faced a drop in demand for the purchase of apartments in new buildings in Moscow. Potential buyers have taken a break, developers say, ready to stimulate demand with discounts. However, there are several unrelated prerequisites to reduce demand for new buildings in the capital, so such measures may not be enough to restore it.

The number of requests for the purchase of apartments and apartments in new buildings in Moscow from September 21 to October 4 fell as expected - by 46% year-on-year, calculated in Best Novostroy at the request of Kommersant. The MIC Group noticed a decrease in demand after the announcement of partial mobilization by 30%, in the A101 Group - by 10%, and on some days even by 30%. Co-owner of Rodina Group Vladimir Shchekin speaks of a 30-40% year-on-year reduction in the number of applications. Anna Telegina, head of the sales department of the Novaya Shcherbinka Residential Complex, recorded a drop in demand by 25-30%. BEL Development Group observes a significant reduction in requests for the purchase of luxury apartments. Granel Group also confirms a "partial decrease in the number of requests" from buyers.

According to Dataflat.ru, in August, sales of apartments and apartments in new buildings in Moscow and the Moscow region, on the contrary, increased by 7% compared to the previous month, in July - by 13% compared to June. Calculations for the whole of September have not yet been made public.

“In autumn, traditionally, the demand for buying housing in new buildings has always been higher than in summer. But the real estate market faced the decline in sales observed since mid-September for the first time,” notes Anna Telegina. Buyers have now taken a wait-and-see attitude, they are not ready to make fundamental decisions in the current environment, says Nadezhda Korkka, managing partner of Metrium.

The reduction in demand for new buildings may become much longer-term than the confusion of potential apartment buyers from the first news of partial mobilization, developers fear. The primary market is beginning to lose a serious tool - affordable mortgages, which deprives developers of the main advantage over the secondary market, explains Irina Dobrokhotova, chairman of the board of directors of Best Novostroy. On September 16, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, announced that the regulator would take measures to reduce programs to subsidize rates by developers. Under such programs, developers offer buyers to purchase housing through a loan at 0.1–2%. The head of the Central Bank called it a "marketing ploy of developers." At the same time, Ms. Korkka adds, up to 81% of transactions in the new-build market are made through mortgages - both under special programs of developers, and at state-subsidized rates, as well as under market conditions.

In order to stimulate sales, developers have already begun to give buyers installments and discounts, which in some projects reach up to 30%, says Anna Telegina. But discounts are unlikely to improve the situation, NEO Center partner Arina Matveeva believes: “Prices over the past two years have become so overheated that even discounts will not increase the affordability of new buildings in Moscow.”

Ms. Dobrokhotova expects that this year the primary market in Moscow will lose 10-20% of demand compared to last year. Dmitry Golev, commercial director of Optima Development, believes that in this case, developers will begin to diversify their business. Developers will give priority to budget housing projects, as there will always be demand for it, adds Sergey Yanchukov, owner of the Mangazeya Group of Companies. The market is also waiting for a wave of mergers and acquisitions, does not exclude the managing partner of Prime Life Development Denis Kovalenko, since it will obviously be easier for large developers to survive the crisis.

Daria Andrianova

Developers have increased debt

According to the Central Bank, as of September 1, 2022, the volume of loan agreements with developers working through escrow accounts in shared construction increased to 10.3 trillion rubles. A total of 6.2 thousand loan agreements were concluded with banks. In August, the amount of loan agreements increased by 6.5%, since the beginning of the year - by almost 56%. The amount of current debt (selected funds from the credit limit) exceeded 4 trillion rubles in August. A proportionate amount of funds is placed by equity holders in banks on escrow accounts. Their number has increased by 14.3% since the beginning of 2022, to 732.7 thousand. According to the Central Bank, the issuance of mortgages in the primary market under equity participation agreements in January-August 2022 reached 1.2 trillion rubles. For all preferential programs, according to Dom.RF, 868 billion rubles were issued over the same period. The main volume falls on family mortgages - 428 billion rubles, while on a preferential basis for new buildings at 7% per annum - 376 billion rubles.

Olga Sherunkova



Source link