Insurers are waiting for the growth of premiums

Experts began to look more positively at the prospects for the insurance market in 2022. If earlier they expected a decrease in the collection of premiums by 10-15%, now even the pessimistic scenario includes a reduction of only 5%, and the best one assumes that the indicator will remain at the level of last year. Steady growth will be shown by the property insurance segments of legal entities, as well as OSAGO and auto hull. But the life insurance segment will not recover, although the decline will be less significant than previously expected.

“Kommersant” got acquainted with the review “Expert RA” on the prospects of the insurance market for the year. According to analysts, the total premium collection of insurers may remain at the level of 2021, that is, about 1.8 trillion rubles. (in the spring it was expected to drop to 10%, see “Kommersant” dated May 25). According to Aleksey Bredikhin, Director of the Financial Institutions Ratings Group of ACRA, fees could be reduced by 5-6% and amount to about 1.7 trillion rubles, while earlier he predicted a reduction of 15%.

The NRA noted that the volume of premiums for the year will be lower than last year, but the scenario looks more optimistic than previous forecasts.

Market participants share an optimistic view of the market. Rosgosstrakh is waiting for a 6% reduction in fees. AlfaStrakhovanie and Soglasiya believe that the decline will not exceed 5%. Sovcombank Insurance believes that the market volume will remain at the level of 2021. Soyuz Insurance Brokers is even talking about a 5% growth.

The expected market growth drivers have also changed. According to Expert RA, the growth of the VHI segment will be 9–11% (up to 220 billion rubles), OSAGO – 6–7% (up to 240 billion rubles), other property of legal entities – 9–11% (up to 132 billion rubles). .). Tatyana Nikitina, senior director of ratings for financial companies at the NRA, adds that the growth of OSAGO will be due to the work on the upper limit of the tariff against the backdrop of negative expectations of insurers in terms of an increase in unprofitability. Aleksey Yanin, Managing Director for ratings of insurance and investment companies Expert RA, explains that as a result of an increase in the cost of medical services (including medicines and consumables), fees for VHI will increase. In addition to the inflationary component, insurance of property of legal entities may be affected by insurance by Russian insurers of risks that could previously be insured by foreign companies (for example, marine insurance, export cargo insurance, etc.), the expert adds.

The auto hull segment will also show growth – by 10-12% (up to 230 billion rubles), while earlier experts predicted a drop of up to 20%. Aleksey Yanin explains that as a result of the growth in the cost of auto parts and repairs, the cost of an insurance policy will also increase, while an increase in the number of policies sold is not expected. Aleksey Khutoryansky, director of the underwriting department for corporate types of insurance at IC Soglasie, notes that insurance of construction and installation risks (CMR) and agricultural insurance are currently more optimistic. In the case of construction and installation works, this is a large number of infrastructure construction projects, including in connection with import substitution, and in agricultural insurance, an increase in the budget for state support, which most directly affects the volume of insurance, he explains.

However, some segments will show a decline.

According to Expert RA, the volume of collected life insurance premiums by the end of the year may reach about 500 billion rubles, which is 4-6% lower than last year’s figure. However, earlier experts predicted a drop of up to 30% in this segment. A similar situation is observed in accident insurance. According to Expert RA, by the end of 2022, the volume of collected premiums will reach 210 billion rubles, which is 20% less than the result of 2021, although earlier NRA experts predicted a fall of 30%.

Analysts attribute the more positive forecasts to the decrease in the key rate of the Bank of Russia in previous months (now 7.5%), which revived lending and related types of insurance and made endowment life insurance more competitive compared to deposits. The Central Bank has noted an acceleration in retail lending in recent months. Over the eight months, the portfolio grew by 4.2% (see “Kommersant” dated September 23), by the end of the year it can reach 5-10%.

Julia Poslavskaya