Insurance companies expect premium collection to grow by 5-10% by the end of 2024

Insurance companies have become more optimistic in their assessment of the market dynamics in 2024. They expect premium collection to grow by 5-10%, with investment life insurance, auto insurance and voluntary health insurance leading the growth. At the same time, traditional types of personal insurance for borrowers may show a significant reduction in collections amid cooling lending, as well as the sale of voluntary health insurance policies instead.

The volume of insurance premiums received by the end of 2024 may increase by 5-10%, according to a survey of companies conducted by the Expert RA rating agency (Kommersant has become familiar with it). In particular, according to the majority of survey participants, the increase in collected premiums for compulsory motor third-party liability insurance will amount to 10%. Collections for comprehensive insurance and voluntary medical insurance may increase by over 10%. Market participants expect the greatest growth in the life insurance segment — over 30%.

At the same time, at the beginning of the year, insurers and experts were more conservative in their forecasts. According to their estimates, the market volume could grow by 3-7%. At the same time, in the CASCO segment, growth was expected by 4-6%, in the OSAGO segment - by 3-4%. According to Expert RA, the VHI segment could show growth of 7-9%, life insurance - by 5-7% (cm. “Kommersant” from January 15).

The forecast adjustment may be related to the high results of insurers in the first half of 2024. In January-June, the volume of the insurance market grew by 20.5% (compared to last year's result), to 1.3 trillion rubles, according to the Central Bank. At the same time, fees in the life insurance segment grew by 42%, in the VHI segment - by 38%, and in CASCO - by 22%.

According to the Expert RA survey, car insurance will become one of the market drivers against the backdrop of growing sales of new cars and acceptable unprofitability. The growth in sales of new cars has a strong impact on the volume of premiums collected, because these cars are more often insured (the share of comprehensive insurance is about 90%), says Karo Karapetyan, CEO of the insurance consultant AST. According to his estimates, currently nine out of ten cars in retail are sold on credit and each is insured under comprehensive insurance and compulsory motor vehicle liability insurance. In the first eight months of 2024, just over 1 million new cars were sold (see “Ъ” from September 5), expectations for the end of the year are 1.6 million cars, the expert notes.

Segment growth voluntary health insurance insurers attribute this to high demand from employers and medical inflation, according to a survey by Expert RA. “Just five to seven years ago, VHI policies were mainly privileges for large businesses, individual industries with high competition for talent, and office workers. Now VHI is gradually becoming accessible and in demand by a wide range of employers,” explains Svetlana Pevneva, deputy general director of the insurance broker Remind. Small and medium businesses are coming to VHI as a necessary factor for retaining and attracting employees in the face of a personnel shortage, notes Sergei Khudyakov, co-owner of the insurance broker Mainsgroup. The potential volume of the segment could reach 200 billion rubles (cm. “Kommersant” from August 27).

Sharp growth life insurance insurers attribute this to the “high growth rates of life insurance and investment life insurance,” the survey notes. The increase in premiums for these products is due to the emergence of insurance products on the market with attractive guaranteed returns and comfortable terms of insurance contracts for policyholders, says Yevgeny Ufimtsev, President of the All-Russian Union of Insurers. In particular, against the backdrop of rising key rates and competition with bank deposits, insurance companies have begun to raise the rate of guaranteed returns on life insurance, and for some players the rate reaches 19.5% per annum (see “Ъ” of August 14).

However, from 2025, tax breaks for this segment will cease to apply. "And if the market fails to restore tax preferences in some form, life insurance products will begin to lose out in terms of profitability to other investment and savings instruments," notes B1 partner Tatyana Samsonova. As a result, this could lead to "a drop in demand for these products," the expert believes.

At the same time, by the end of 2024, insurers expect a reduction in fees in credit life insurance and accident and illness insurance, according to a survey by Expert RA.

The negative dynamics in traditional types of personal insurance for borrowers is due to the transition of some banks to the “low rate” service instead of an insurance policy when applying for a loan, the implementation of some insurance programs when lending in the VHI format, as well as the gradual cooling of the credit market in connection with the tightening of monetary policy, believes Mr. Ufimtsev.

Julia Poslavskaya