In the black, only imports - Newspaper Kommersant No. 185 (7386) dated 10/06/2022

In the black, only imports - Newspaper Kommersant No. 185 (7386) dated 10/06/2022



Rosstat published an estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2022, made using the income method (the sum of expenditures of all sectors on final consumption, gross capital formation and stocks, net exports). Recall that physical GDP in annual terms for the second quarter sank by 4.1% against the backdrop of an increase in the general price level (GDP deflator) by 17.1%.

As follows from the new data, demand fell by 6.4% due to lower final consumption expenditures (minus 4.1%) and gross capital formation (minus 13.8%). The decline in final consumption is associated with a reduction in consumer spending by households by 5.5%. Gross capital formation fell (by 13.8%) against the background of an increase in spending on capital investments (by 3.2%) and a sharp reduction in "increase in inventories, mainly goods for resale," according to Rosstat.

Meanwhile, in the structure of GDP in the second quarter, spending on inventories decreased to 0.4% from 4%, and on capital investments increased to 18.1% from 17.6%. As a result, the share of gross capital formation decreased to 18.5% from 21.6% a year ago. At the same time, the share of net exports increased to 15.5% from 8.5% due to a strong excess of energy export prices over import prices. The share of spending on final consumption decreased by 3.9 percentage points (p.p.) over the year to 66%.

In the sources of income from which GDP was paid in the second quarter, the share of gross profit increased to 52.3% from 45.8%, while wages for the year decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 42.1%. The share of net taxes on production and imports decreased from 10.6% to 5.6% due to a reduction in taxes on imports and an increase in subsidies for production (mainly in the employment of unemployed citizens, Rosstat explains).

Note that, according to the World Bank (WB), only spending on imports will make a positive contribution to GDP change in 2022 (see chart). In 2023, against the backdrop of deteriorating recession forecasts (see Kommersant of October 5), only spending on inventories will make such a contribution, and only in 2024 will all areas of income use return to a positive contribution, and the contribution of imports will become negative. “The recession will continue in 2023 due to sanctions, then stabilization. But medium and long-term growth will be very low, as Russia has lost access to the main sources of productivity, ”the WB concludes.

Artem Chugunov



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