In anticipation of normality - Newspaper Kommersant No. 19 (7464) dated 02/02/2023

In anticipation of normality - Newspaper Kommersant No. 19 (7464) dated 02/02/2023



On Wednesday, the Expert Institute for Social Research (EISI) held a round table to discuss some of the features of the regional elections scheduled for autumn. The participants in the discussion especially noted their scale and the actual overlap of the regional campaign-2023 with the presidential campaign-2024. Experts believe that in an era of uncertainty, voters yearning for “normality” and seeking to escape from global and federal news will become more interested in the development of their regions and cities. At the same time, the participants of the event did not rule out the sudden appearance closer to the elections of new factors that could correct their forecasts and influence the overall situation in the country.

Opening the round table, EISI Managing Director for Interaction with the Expert Community Firdus Aliyev noted that “within a large electoral cycle” between the two presidential elections, the upcoming campaign is the most intense in terms of the number of elected governors and deputies of legislative assemblies: “What is important, these subjects (where elections are held .— "b") are electorally very weighty.” He recalled that in the fall, for the first time, it will be possible to observe campaigns in four new subjects "with all the features, multiplied by the features, including the special military operation, and the peculiarities of the perception of the emerging legal system of these regions."

Aleksey Chesnakov, scientific director of the Center for Current Politics, said that somewhere the regional campaign will overlap with the upcoming presidential campaign in 2024, which will begin a little earlier than the official deadlines. However, their semantic agendas will still be different, and the regional elections will rather have a technological significance for the presidential elections as an important measure of electoral sentiment, the expert explained. He suggested looking at the single voting day-2023 as one big campaign that forms "the outline of domestic policy in an informational and semantic way." This "contour", according to the political scientist, will also be formed by the forthcoming message of the president to the Federal Assembly. On the whole, according to his assessment, the government maintains a course towards “normality” and stability.

Political technologist Yevgeny Minchenko noted that the elections will be held in a new era. “We call it the “epoch of fear” – when the level of anxiety among people, the level of concern about tomorrow is much higher than before. This makes their choice more conscious and more careful,” the expert explained. According to him, candidates in this election will have to look for a "new key", which used to be "new sincerity", and now can be "cynical frankness".

Political consultant Maria Sergeeva believes that “rallying around the flag” will remain the dominant theme of the campaign, but at the same time, against the backdrop of general anxiety, people have become more attentive to the city and municipal agenda. “From the focus groups, one gets the feeling: if only 'not to think about the white elephant', if only not to think about anxiety about tomorrow. Let's immediately talk about how we can equip our regions, discuss all these programs, let's talk about the future - that's what people say. There is a big request to talk about the future,” Mrs. Sergeeva explained.

People want peace, they want to regain the opportunity to plan something in life, political scientist Anna Fedorova agreed. In her opinion, candidates in these elections will have to strike a balance: on the one hand, they will not be able to ignore military-patriotic topics, but on the other hand, they will need to work to calm people down and present them with some kind of “pleasant image of the future in which they finally rest their souls."

Director of Political Analysis of the Institute of Social Marketing Viktor Poturemsky also noted that Russia is now in a situation of “maximum uncertainty”: “Spring of this year will be an important point for the semantic reloading of the arguments of both sides of the conflict. We can expect a rethinking of its results and what will happen next.” He drew attention to three electoral groups, the work with which will be a challenge for the authorities: women (the core of the pro-government electorate), families of the mobilized (including the wounded and the dead) and veterans (including the disabled). Among the possible threats, the expert named the anxiety and fears of the population, the worsening economic situation, negative trends in the government's ratings, a decrease in trust in the media, and an abundance of multidirectional forces in the information field. But along with the threats, there are also “opportunities,” Mr. Poturemsky added: “the Donbass consensus,” a fairly stable economic situation, “positively assessed by the population” actions within the NWO, reliance on recognized results. At the same time, he agreed that under the conditions of the NWO, the demand for the regional agenda is increasing among the population: “We are under the influence of the fear factor, when the quality of the tiles, the intervals of the buses become most sensitive.” Therefore, people want the authorities to develop key sectors of the economy, support material well-being, help the mobilized and their families, ensure effective management, and demonstrate a “common destiny,” the expert listed. “Evgeny Nikolaevich (Minchenko.— "b") said the word "cynicism". I agree, but I would talk about pragmatism and rationality. Still, there is a request for empathy,” Viktor Poturemsky concluded.

Political scientist Alexander Asafov, in turn, commented on the intention of the parties to attract members of the SVO as candidates in the elections. In his opinion, parties can conduct such recruiting, but the big question is whether there will be a response to him “from the side of the trench.” It is unlikely that CBO participants see themselves now in an electoral vein, the expert explained: “Because people are busy. Although, of course, a certain number of them, who returned due to the expiration of the contract or for some health problems, will take part in the elections, and they will have an advantage. But it won't be an overwhelming trend." The trend to nominate such candidates is more likely to manifest itself in the campaign for elections to the State Duma in 2026, Mr. Asafov suggested. He also warned that it is not worth making unambiguous forecasts about the situation on the eve and during the elections now, since we are all in a world of "colossal political dynamics." “The probability of “black swans”, or rather, “khaki swans”, which can fly in this electoral period, is high,” the political scientist explained his thought.

Andrey Vinokurov, Ksenia Veretennikova



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