Imports are recovering on consumption

The surplus of Russian foreign trade in goods in July fell to $28 billion from a peak of $40 billion in April, follows from the “mirror” statistics updated by analysts on the Solid Figures Telegram channel, based on data from 45 countries – the main trading partners of the Russian Federation.

Exports in July in annual terms increased by 15% against 29% in June and 33% in May, amounting to $ 50 billion. Since April, it has decreased by 10%. Exports to India are growing rapidly and steadily (by six times compared to the comparable period), Turkey (by 78%), China (by 47%) and Malaysia (by 2.5 times).

Despite the fact that tax revenues to the federal budget from imports decreased by 43.7% yoy in July against 45.3% in June, imports (mainly from consumer goods) continued to recover rapidly. Imports in July increased by 60% from the April low (to $22 billion), but decreased by 17% in annual terms (against 30% in June). Imports of goods from Turkey and China grew rapidly – by 75% and 22% in annual terms (these countries are the main suppliers of imported consumer goods). Along with this, the import of goods from some CIS countries: Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia began to increase rapidly, in July – 2-4 times more in annual terms.

Investment imports in the Russian Federation still lag behind consumer imports (minus 44% yoy). However, supplies of machinery and equipment from South Korea, China, Turkey and even the USA have increased since June. Earlier, Kommersant noted that this may be due to the corresponding activity of small and medium-sized companies (see Kommersant of August 16). At the same time, investment imports from the EU have remained 3-4 times lower than the 2021 average since May.

According to the balance of payments, the current account surplus amounted to $16.5 billion in August against $21.7 billion in July, which was the minimum monthly figure this year. At the same time, the figure for August is above the average of $10.2 billion in 2021. The balance of foreign trade in goods and services decreased from $42.8 billion in July to $25.3 billion in August. “The smaller surplus is the result of a decline in exports, including raw materials, growth in imports and a larger deficit in trade in services due to the holiday season,” explains Dmitry Polevoy from Lokoinvest, expecting a $15-20 billion surplus to stabilize by the end of the year.

Alexey Shapovalov