Harmonizing Statistics: How to Properly Estimate Greenhouse Gases
Currently, estimates of the size of forage areas differ by more than 4 times
A verified accounting of the area of forage lands allows for a reliable assessment of the level of greenhouse gas absorption, says Anton Strokov, an expert at the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the Presidential Academy. He conducted a study in which he identified gaps in the calculation of the number of pastures and hayfields in the country. The methods give results that differ from each other by four times. All this affects the measurement of CO2 absorption throughout Russia, which may ultimately affect the implementation of the Low-Carbon Development Strategy until 2050.
The efficiency of land use in agriculture implies their correct statistical accounting. Current annual statistics published by Rosstat reflect only the use of sown areas, which does not fully reveal the picture of resource use in livestock farming. Most of the cattle and sheep population, according to historical tradition, are fed from pastures and hayfields, that is, from forage lands. Do agricultural regulators have reliable information about the actual amount and area of land used?
"Instead of one, there are three official sources of information on the size of forage lands in Russia, which are actually inconsistent with each other. This prevents a reliable assessment of land use efficiency, as well as a correct assessment of greenhouse gas emissions and absorption. Estimates of the size of forage lands differ by more than 4 times depending on the official source of the relevant statistical data," Strokov believes.
Thus, the minimum estimate is 28 million hectares - according to the Rosstat microcensus for 2021, and the maximum is 122 million hectares - according to the National Cadastre of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Absorptions. Analysis of the cadastre data showed that most forage lands are still estimated as a net emitter of greenhouse gases. At the same time, even minor changes in the growth of forage lands due to the transfer of lands of another category to pastures can lead to a significant increase in the absorption of greenhouse gases in the soils of forage lands.
"It is necessary to amend Article 79 of the Land Code of the Russian Federation, supplementing it with a provision that would separate pastures and hayfields used in agricultural production from unused pastures and hayfields, giving them corresponding different statuses. This would allow for the correct reflection of reporting on the actually used and actually unused size of forage lands," Strokov continues.
In addition, the findings of the analysis allow us to consider it appropriate to supplement Article 1 of the Federal Law of 24.07.2002 No. 101-FZ "On the Circulation of Agricultural Land" with a provision stipulating that the effect of this law does not apply to pastures and hayfields that have not been used for more than two years.
This will allow lands where livestock are not grazed and which are not mown for storing hay for animal feed to be transferred to special statistical accounting and not classified as agricultural lands.
"We should finally harmonize the methodology of the National Cadastre of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Absorptions and Rosstat for recording the size of forage lands actually used by agricultural producers. Rosstat should also be obliged to publish the relevant statistics annually, since it currently publishes this data only once every five years. This makes us think about the effective assessment of this type of land resources, as well as about possible assessments of greenhouse gas emissions from this type of land, which is important for Russia in the context of the implementation of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the Low-Carbon Development Strategy of the country until 2050," Strokov concludes.
