Goldman Sachs expects ECB to raise its discount rate by another 0.75%

Goldman Sachs expects ECB to raise its discount rate by another 0.75%


According to the forecasts of analysts of the American investment bank Goldman Sachs (GS), which cites Bloomberg, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to raise the refinancing rate by 0.75% at its meetings in October and December. Economists at GS, led by Jari Sten, had previously expected a more modest 0.5% rate hike by the end of the year, but now they believe that “inflation in the fourth quarter will complicate a more moderate rate hike” for the ECB.

In July, the ECB raised the rate from zero to 0.5%, and in September by another 0.75%, to 1.25%. Thus, by the end of the year, after two meetings of the ECB in October and December, the rate could reach 2.75%. After that, according to GS, in February 2023, the ECB may raise the rate by another 0.5%, as inflationary pressures in the eurozone turn into a recession.

Evgeniy Khvostik



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