Geneticist spoke about the danger of a new supermutant coronavirus

For the latest news, many have forgotten about the pandemic. Meanwhile, the coronavirus continues to bring new surprises. The Omicron variant is rapidly multiplying into various subspecies, and in the process of evolution it produced a new variant of BQ.1.1, which scientists have called a potentially dangerous hypermutant. Compared to its already ancestor BA.5, it has added the most important anti-immune mutations. The well-known American scientist, geneticist Dmitry Prus told the MK observer about what troubles another representative of the Omicron family could threaten.

– What are the features of the new super mutant? Why is it worth highlighting among others?

– Although in recent days genomic epidemiologists have sounded the alarm because of the “Nigerian” sub-variant of Omicron BQ.1.1, which is rapidly spreading across the planet, the issue today is broader than one specific branch of the evolution of the virus. The defense line of the immune system has actually been breached along the entire front, and variants of the most diverse origins successfully attack from numerous directions, using approximately the same set of measures to counter the immune system. To date, a very small range of mutations, literally in three or four positions in the spikes of the virus, are extremely effective in giving the virus resistance against antibodies. And now, right before our eyes, the most heterogeneous strains are acquiring these mutations, first one at a time, and then two, and even three, step by step making viruses less and less sensitive to today’s antibodies. The historic achievement of the BQ.1.1 strain is that it was the first to cross the barrier of “simultaneously three mutations from the list of today’s hits of popularity”, but few doubt that similar triple mutated variants will soon appear in other Omicron lines. In Russia, the record is more modest so far – these are two “hot mutations” at the same time, set by samples of the virus from Smolensk.

– Until now, WHO has distributed all new mutants into categories: “potentially dangerous”, “requiring observation”, assigned new letters. But it is still not clear what she decided with the Omicron sub-variants …

– The era of “Omicron” has dragged on, WHO is in no hurry to spend the next Greek letters, and it is hoped that this situation will last longer. After all, it is impossible to predict when the piecemeal accumulation of mutations, which is characteristic of Omicron today, will result in a qualitative change in the nature of the infection. At the current stage of the pandemic, the evolution of the virus is aimed at counteracting antibodies, which, due to the massive incidence during the previous waves of Omicron, have accumulated in almost everyone. To accumulate some antibodies have accumulated, but basically they attack only a small number of areas on the surface of the virus. In other words, the distribution of antibodies among the population has expanded, but the range of targets of these antibodies has narrowed. Therefore, a virus with even one single mutation that changes only one of the vulnerable targets can achieve serious success against antibodies. And two or three strategically placed mutations practically guarantee the victory of the virus over the “first line of defense of immunity.” But for the time being, nothing else in the behavior of the virus may change. Yes, it penetrates the body despite antibodies, but in terms of the severity and consequences of the disease, this is still the same variation on the Omicron theme, nothing fundamentally new, no need for a “new Greek letter”. When and how the amount of accumulated mutations can turn into quality – only the future will give us an answer to this question.

– Why is it said about BQ.1.1 that this strain that originated in Nigeria could start a new wave of the pandemic in the West as early as October?

– This is due to the dynamics of the variant in England, where the increase in the share of BQ.1.1 is close to exponential, doubling in a week. But in a number of countries such rapid growth is not visible, and in England, too, the proportion of the new strain varies greatly between laboratories. This means that the observed increase can be explained by outbreaks in some narrow but disproportionately sequenced demographic segment of British society. Maybe it’s nursing homes. About a quarter of these English genomes even look like twins on the evolutionary tree, hinting that this could have been a single outbreak. So let’s not be surprised if growth turns out to be more modest in the coming days …

– Some doctors note that drugs based on monoclonal antibodies, various “mabs”, which at a certain stage of the pandemic became a salvation, are now becoming completely ineffective. Is the story over with mabs?

“While BQ.1.1 could end months of successful use of bebtelovimab, it certainly won’t be the end of mabams, as there are new developments that have not yet been approved for use. There will be a need (and this is not far off) – and use will begin. It may be difficult for mab manufacturers right now, because a lot of money is spent on development and production, and if a monoclonal antibody turns out to be a one-day one, it will hit the manufacturer’s pocket. But with some government support, the problem is solved.

– Can we hope for vaccines? Are there vaccines that activate T-cell immunity or is it impossible?

– Although with the accumulation of mutations in the S-protein, new strains systematically bypass the protection against vaccines and infect the vaccinated, nevertheless, vaccines continue to protect against the severe course of the disease and death. Gradually, data is coming in indicating protection from the long-term effects of covid. The fact is that only the most massively developed antibodies can effectively stop infection with a virus, and now they are poorly suited to the surface of the virus changed by mutations. But the body also has “rare, but well-aimed” antibodies in reserve, which at the time of the encounter with the virus had not yet been produced in more or less significant quantities, but the production of which will begin shortly after the infection, when the immune system realizes that such an antibody turned out to be useful. There are also T-cells, the attack of which is much more difficult to prevent by mutations. Vaccines help the immune system both accumulate a variety of “rare antibodies” in reserve, and create T-cells to fight the coronavirus. These methods of protection work with a delay, not preventing the infection as such, but preventing the disease from dragging on and moving into dangerous phases.

– How to defend yourself?

– It is better for people from high-risk groups not to throw protection, not to walk in crowds without masks, especially at the peak of the waves.

– What to expect in the future? Is it possible to assume some vectors of mutations, ways of evolution of the virus?

– It is difficult to say what to expect from the evolution of a virus that is transmitted between people billions of times. It is difficult to exclude the possibility of changes dangerous for humanity, because the virus can benefit not only from the constant struggle against antibodies, but also from counteraction against innate immunity, against T-cells. A particularly high viral load in the respiratory tract can also be useful. Although it is statistically more likely, of course, that covid will remain with us forever, but will go down the line of weakening pathogenicity. In general, it will be very interesting for scientists to observe this process, but no one can predict with a guarantee.