Experts revealed the prospects for global energy markets: Germany will lose industry

Experts revealed the prospects for global energy markets: Germany will lose industry



Without raw materials from Russia, Europe will lose all production

Europeans have been advised to prepare for a cold winter without Russian natural gas. Teresa Ribera, Minister of Energy of Spain, stated this. According to her, the EU countries have already “taken for granted” the fact that there will be no more fuel supplies like before. But the problem is that Europe cannot do without Russian hydrocarbons, at least not yet. Existing reserves are insufficient and alternative gas prices are too high. Europeans are already starting to shut down industrial plants. The measure is forced: energy is expensive, because of this, the cost of production becomes unbearable. During the conference at the MK press center, experts told what the future of the global energy market is like and whether the Europeans will be able to survive the winter without serious consequences.

The European Union has been discussing energy sanctions against Russia for several months: first, a complete embargo on domestic oil and gas, then a price ceiling, and then increased taxes on energy companies. Meanwhile, these restrictions run the risk of hitting first of all the Europeans themselves. “Europe has taken for granted the fact that we will not count on gas from Russia,” says Teresa Ribera. According to her, recent events "foreshadow a difficult winter" in Europe.

Indeed, an energy crisis is flaring up in Europe, says investment strategist of Arikapital Management Company, candidate of economic sciences Sergey Suverov. “So far, European gas storage facilities are about 80% full. But this is not a reason to say that everything will be fine and in winter they will not have to impose restrictions on the use of electricity. Energy bills will be very high. Some Europeans even leave to spend the winter in other countries, so as not to pay huge amounts for utilities. It is also a very big blow to European industry. Businesses will be closed. In the long term, this will force Europe's transition to a different economic model and away from industrial development,” the analyst says.

But Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund, believes that the main blow this winter will not be for the inhabitants of Europe. And for the industrial enterprises of the continent. “Physically, EU citizens will not freeze in winter, there are other sources of gas supply, except for Russian ones. The world will not see Europeans frozen in the streets, as in science fiction films. But their industry will be hit hard: energy prices are very high,” the analyst says.

“Europeans are already suffering from industrial production: due to expensive energy, the cost of production has risen sharply. Europe is becoming a huge market because many industries are degrading. There is deindustrialization in metallurgy, in the pulp industry, fertilizers are practically not produced. This is a slow, creeping process, but it is underway,” Yushkov notes. In his opinion. Since before, the Europeans will no longer live. In many ways, their industry (especially the German one) was built with the expectation of supplying large volumes of Russian hydrocarbons at affordable prices. “Let's see how they will restructure their work. Germany, for example, may begin to turn into a country in Southern Europe, in terms of the economic model, where the industry is not so highly developed, ”he believes.

The Old World is especially worried about the heating season, when there will be a physical increase in demand for all energy carriers, says Aleksey Grivach, Deputy General Director of the National Energy Security Fund. “The European energy balance is bursting at the seams. The situation is extremely dangerous: both the economy and the social sphere may collapse,” he continues. “Yes, we are not talking about the physical freezing of Europeans, but whether they are ready to endure the consequences of sanctions is a big question.”



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