Experts predicted a sharp decline in demand for mortgages

We decided to find out whether the Russians will be more active in taking out a mortgage – the most expensive loan, and how the repayment of debts will go in tragic situations.

– It is necessary to prepare for a decrease in mortgage demand, – says Irina Dobrokhotova, managing partner of Dombook, chairman of the board of directors of BEST-Novostroy. – According to the observation of the Central Bank, the day after the announcement of the mobilization of the demand for cash in Russia has grown nine times. According to “Best-Novostroy”, the primary interest in real estate (advertising conversion) over the same period decreased by 21%. All this suggests that, on the one hand, the population is in an emotional state, so to speak, which usually does not last long, but on the other hand, people are interested in keeping all their savings “for a rainy day”, and panic buying everything and all in the short term is not expected.

Even if the issuance of mortgages in the coming months will increase, it will only be due to the effect of the low spring-summer base, the specialist says. According to the bnMap.pro analytical system, in April-August 2022, 17% fewer mortgage agreements were signed in the primary housing market in Moscow than in the same period a year earlier: 14.1 thousand versus 16.9 thousand, respectively. And this despite the fact that the share of mortgages in total demand is growing much faster than last year. In August 2021, it was 56%, in August 22 – 80%.

– Judging by these figures, people do not have “live” money to buy real estate, they are forced to get into loans, – says psychologist Lyubov Izvarova. – And this really means that the potential of the mortgage market in the capital, and even more so in the Russian regions, is very limited, regardless of the political situation. As for other loans, it is quite possible that men will want to purchase household appliances – fortunately, in this case, income information is not required to be provided. Again, as people argue: if I return alive and well, I can pay the expenses. Well, if not, let the state provide for my family.

The downward trend in mortgage demand may continue until certainty arises, Irina Dobrokhotova predicts. “If in the next month there will be clear decodings of who will be mobilized, who will definitely not, in two months for any loans, including mortgages, demand may go up,” the expert believes.

Will men subject to conscription become more active in taking out mortgages? “If we are talking about those mobilized in accordance with the order of September 21, while we are talking about 300,000 men of working age throughout the country. Perhaps half of them already have mortgage obligations – such statistics have not yet been kept, while others, as I assume, have neither needs nor opportunities in mortgages, – answers Irina Dobrokhotova. – If there are cases of concluding a mortgage agreement precisely in connection with mobilization, then they will become so rare that they will not be reflected in the statistics. First, a person must at least need housing. Secondly, one way or another must be able to pay a mortgage loan. Finally, if everything comes down to just setting a credit holiday for the time of mobilization, this is too ephemeral advantage of a mortgage, just for the sake of this, hardly anyone will agree to issue it.

How likely is it that the bill will be supported by deputies and the government? Our experts answer this question unambiguously.

– To support all-round credit relief for the mobilized is not only logical, but also represents a kind of “retribution for a debt,” says Irina Dobrokhotova.

Another question is what kind of measures against the mobilized will eventually be approved by the lawmakers. If only a credit holiday is, so to speak, the minimum task, it would be unethical in relation to the army and the people not to do this. As for the compensation of all debt obligations in the event of death, it is not at all clear here: in 99% of cases, a mortgage loan is not issued without life insurance. The corresponding standard contract does not insure obligations in case of suicide or negligent death, but nothing is said about violent death or death as a result of force majeure. So, rather, it is necessary to work out situations with uninsured loan obligations so that they are posthumously removed from all those who repaid their debt to their homeland.

– Partial mobilization took the Russians by surprise, despite the fact that the special operation has been going on since February of this year and many have been waiting for this news. It just seems to us that this will not affect us, and everything happens somewhere far away and not with us, – says the writer, futurist Karagay. – Therefore, citizens reacted weakly to all the calls of the authorities to treat their finances more responsibly, including borrowed ones. The first question that arose in people the next morning was: “How are we going to pay loans?” Because the vast majority are seriously indebted.

The mentality of the inhabitants of Russia has long ceased to correspond to the traditional saying “Prepare the sleigh in the summer, and the cart in the winter.” Pandemic survivors quickly learned to live one day at a time and not plan for their future.

“Economists note an increase in the number of offices that issue microcredits and loans in addition to banks,” says transformational psychologist Anna Spasskaya. – Russians began to use credit cards more actively, unlearning how to control their spending and forgetting about saving. As a result – the growth of debts and complete uncertainty about their financial future.

However, just a proposal for a loan holiday or not inheriting loan obligations is a real way out for many families. To leave people without support in a difficult period would mean complete indifference and a consumerist attitude towards ordinary citizens. By law, citizens subject to partial mobilization will not be sent to the front line, they will be in more benign conditions than professional soldiers, but one way or another, this will give many men the opportunity to continue to provide for their families, Karagay argues: “It is unlikely that a resident of a remote village or a small town will someday get the opportunity to meet the family’s needs for comfortable housing.

– In the very near future, we should not expect a surge in mortgage loans, but over time, the purchase of housing will become less of a sore subject just in connection with the latest bills aimed at supporting people who are fulfilling their civic duty. Both deputies and the government are interested in raising the prestige of the military profession, and laws relating to financial issues are a good solution for many categories of the country’s population, Karagay is sure.

People who are at least a little familiar with the legislation above the couch analyst understand perfectly well that a great opportunity has appeared not only to restore their standard of living, but also to get a reserve for the future, concludes Anna Spasskaya. There have been military actions at all times, there are about 70 “hot” spots on Earth in which people serve under a contract, receiving preferences from the state for their duty.

REFERENCE “MK”. As Andrey Turchak reported on his United Russia telegram channel, the upper house of the Russian parliament proposes to provide “credit holidays” for the period of military service to mobilized or reduce the monthly payment. In case of death or injury of the borrower, debts on loans will be canceled. The termination of obligations will also occur for Russians who were at the time of the death of a serviceman dependent on him.