EU divides Russian gas into "red" and "green" zones

EU divides Russian gas into "red" and "green" zones



The countries of the Old World invent rules for introducing a ceiling on fuel from the Russian Federation

The European Commission offered the countries of the Old World two options for limiting gas prices from Russia. One of the scenarios involves the introduction of a maximum limit on the cost of all "blue fuel" imported from our country; the second divides importers into "red" and "green" zones, depending on the degree of risk of interruptions in gas supplies. Sergey Suverov, investment strategist at Arikapital, believes that such a castling is unlikely to allow European countries to avoid a fuel crisis in the coming winter.

The European Commission proposes to establish a maximum price ceiling for Russian gas according to two schemes. The first of them involves the introduction of a maximum limit on the cost of all "blue fuel" imported from Russia. Alternatively, a single European buyer of Russian gas can be appointed, who will also negotiate prices for energy resources. The second scenario assumes the following: the countries of the European Union will be divided into "red" and "green" zones, the "shade" of each will vary depending on the degree of risk of interruptions in the supply of hydrocarbons. In the countries of the "green" zone, it is proposed to leave gas prices relatively high, and for the countries included in the list of "red" countries, the cost of energy resources may remain at an increased level. How feasible is such a scheme, we asked Sergei Suverov.

- Any proposal concluded within the framework of an international partnership should lead to closer contacts of one state with another. Let them be hindered by political differences, but the document itself must demonstrate movement towards each other. The European Commission's division of the consumers of the continent into "green" and red" indicates the opposite. Approving the new memorandum, the EU immediately admits that “it is afraid of increasing the risk of force majeure in the contracts of European companies with Gazprom, as well as increasing geopolitical tensions. In other words, Brussels frankly confirms that with its new pact it complicates the already rather contradictory situation in the global energy market.

- And yet, by what principle can the division into a “red” and a “green” zone be carried out?

- Based on the provisions of the document, at least voiced in the foreign press, the European Union is going to establish a single buyer of Russian gas, which will negotiate with Russia on the cost of gas. Logically, this structure will also determine the cost of the price of the supplied fuel. Germany says its underground reserves are chock full of accumulated hydrocarbons, but further supplies may be limited "depending on the risk of disruption to fuel supply." For countries in the red zone, prices can be limited, while those in the green zone can remain at a sufficient level to facilitate gas supplies to the countries in the red zone.

- That is, countries that have a significant potential for energy resources will be able to resell raw materials to their EU comrades?

- Apparently, yes, although the amount of contracts in this case is unlikely to be regulated and will certainly exceed market conditions. Some countries, such as Hungary, are already buying increased volumes of fuel from Gazprom. Transactions are carried out in rubles, which suits Moscow. It can be assumed that in the future, when a number of European buyers at the end of the heating season will not have raw materials to provide their customers, all eyes will be turned to Budapest. If the Hungarians have reserves that can be shared with EU partners, they will share. Only it is unlikely that the means of settlement in such transactions will be rubles.

- And if someone disagrees with the appointed cost of gas?

- So they will have to defend their position in European courts. So far, the EU plan is superficial, and it makes no sense to be guided by it. Each of the participants in the process will be able to present their own claims and views on Russian gas. Naturally, each of the parties has its own approaches to the purchase of Russian gas. Most countries are accustomed to acquiring "blue fuel" under long-term contracts, while others prefer to order the necessary volumes on the spot, that is, on the short-term market. In this case, Gazprom has the opportunity to vary: the monopoly sells about half of its fuel on the European market under spot contracts.



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