Employees instead of investments - Newspaper Kommersant No. 50 (7495) dated 03/24/2023

Employees instead of investments - Newspaper Kommersant No. 50 (7495) dated 03/24/2023



Updated on March 22 by the Gaidar Institute (IEP), the index of business sentiment among industry representatives recorded an improvement in forecasts for all three of its components: demand, output and employment.

The most notable growth was demonstrated by production plans - this indicator increased by eight points over the month, reaching the level of February 2022. The growth of optimism is also evidenced by forecasts of demand for the products of enterprises. In March, after stabilization in September 2022-February 2023 in the “minus 5-minus 3 points” interval, this indicator increased by 3 points at once and reached the highest value after a record collapse a year earlier. The intention to increase production in anticipation of demand against the backdrop of an acute shortage of personnel also led to record hiring plans: they returned to the level of December 2022 - a "crisis high", exceeding the values ​​of the period 2009 - the first half of 2021.

The investment plans of enterprises (according to the IEP survey, first of all, industrialists need predictability of the macroeconomic situation) in March failed to continue their recovery and so far only got rid of the pessimism of the first year of the sanctions war (see chart). It is likely that in a situation of shortage of personnel and low predictability of the macroeconomic situation, companies will prefer higher capital investments to increase salaries in order to attract employees.

Recall that Rosstat estimated the growth of capital investments in 2022 at the level of 4.6%. The Institute for Economics in Transition of the Bank of Finland calculated that investments in fixed assets in the Russian Federation, which mainly cover large and medium-sized enterprises, as well as the public sector (77% of total investments), in April-December 2022 in real terms in the by the year” grew by almost 5%. The remaining capital investments (of small enterprises, households and the shadow economy) over the same period fell by 2% - as in periods of past economic crises. At the same time, in sectors dominated by state-owned companies, investments (including budget ones) grew in April-December 2022, while in sectors where the share of private enterprises is greater (this includes chemistry and metallurgy), they decreased, mainly - by companies with foreign participation.

Artem Chugunov



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