Economic Development Minister Reshetnikov tried to reassure State Duma deputies

Economic Development Minister Reshetnikov tried to reassure State Duma deputies



But there are no grounds for economic growth now

In 2023, the real incomes of Russians will begin to recover, and unemployment will remain at a low level, said Maxim Reshetnikov, head of the Ministry of Economic Development, during the "government hour" in the State Duma. In general, his speech was sustained in such a soothing tone as is generally possible in the current, far from calm, situation.

The key thesis of the minister is that the economy has survived despite the unprecedented scale of sanctions: more than 11,000 of them have been imposed against Russia. Almost a quarter of Russian imports and exports fell under a direct ban, access to the global financial system was blocked - state and private assets were frozen, transactions with the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance were prohibited, and financial transactions were hindered. The business faced all sorts of logistical and technological constraints. But, despite all this, says Reshetnikov, the situation is far from catastrophic thanks to the margin of safety formed in recent years.

“At the beginning of 2022, the volume of public debt was one of the lowest in the world,” the minister recalled. — The share of non-residents in the domestic public debt has significantly decreased. At its peak - in the spring of 2018 - it exceeded a third: it was 35%, now it is 18%. In addition, since 2014, the Russian authorities have been working to diversify the structure of exports. We managed to reduce the share of oil and gas revenues in federal budget revenues, and launched a national payment infrastructure.”

Reshetnikov named the removal of administrative barriers, the provision of preferential loans to businesses, the increase in the flexibility of state regulation and the creation of conditions for import substitution among other factors for the sustainability of the economy. According to the minister, a scenario has been prepared for accelerated adaptation of the economy to all challenges. He assumes that in 2024 the economy will reach a steady growth of 2.6%. Among the main priorities, Reshetnikov named the development of transport and logistics infrastructure, taking into account the reorientation of export-import flows, import substitution, work to ensure technological sovereignty, as well as stimulating investment activity. Another important thesis that requires separate consideration concerns the real incomes of citizens: they, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development noted, should recover as early as 2023 due to the growth of real wages, business incomes, indexation of social benefits and inflation slowdown.

“The question arises: what will increase the real incomes of the population,” Nikolai Vavilov, a specialist in the strategic research department at Total Research, comments on the words of the minister. - After all, new sanctions are expected, a deficit budget is planned, additional money will be collected from large corporations for the treasury. It is extremely unlikely that in such a situation they will raise the salaries of employees. All the more so, small and medium-sized businesses will not do this, despite state support. There are simply no grounds for income growth right now.”

By the way, last week Reshetnikov said that inflation in Russia at the end of the current year will be 12.4%, in 2023 it will slow down to 5.5%, and in subsequent years it will be 4%. As of September 19, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, it amounted to 13.92%. However, one should not forget about such a formidable potential driver as the indexation of housing and communal services tariffs for the population, which was postponed by the decision of the government from July 1, 2023 to December 1, 2022. Moreover, tariffs will increase not by 4%, as in summer, but immediately by 9%. And this will almost certainly whip up general inflation, Igor Nikolaev, chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes. According to him, one cannot count on a slowdown in inflation to 5.5% in these conditions, and even more so - on an increase in the growth rate of real incomes of citizens. In addition, the interlocutor of MK recalls that the Cabinet of Ministers intends to weaken the ruble with the help of an updated budget rule, spending almost 1 trillion rubles on this. The burden on the treasury is growing, and the strong ruble makes it difficult to fill it. If the problem can be solved, inflation will accelerate even more.

Published in the newspaper "Moskovsky Komsomolets" No. 28879 dated September 29, 2022

Newspaper headline:
Quiet time in the State Duma



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