Domodedovo lost traffic – Newspaper Kommersant No. 174 (7375) of 09/21/2022

According to Kommersant, Domodedovo has lost almost a fifth of its passengers in eight months of this year, demonstrating the most serious decline in the Moscow air hub. Experts attribute this to the departure of major carriers from Domodedovo to Sheremetyevo Airport, which suffered the most during the pandemic. The total passenger traffic of Russian airlines in January-August decreased by 12%, which, according to experts, makes the target of 100 million people unattainable for the year.

Domodedovo reduced passenger traffic in January-August by 17%, to 13.7 million passengers, sources in the industry and an interlocutor close to the Ministry of Transport told Kommersant. This is 27.5% less than in the eight months of pre-pandemic 2019 (18.9 million). Vnukovo confirmed that the airport’s passenger traffic decreased by about 7%, to 10.9 million passengers, which is almost 32% less than in the same period in 2019 (16 million people). Sheremetyevo Airport sank the most to the level of 2019, which lost almost 40% of traffic. At the same time, over the eight months of 2022, passenger traffic increased by almost 6% (to about 20 million people).

The Federal Air Transport Agency has not published operational statistics since February. Domodedovo and Sheremetyevo declined to comment, Kommersant sent a request to the Ministry of Transport.

According to Kommersant’s data, the total passenger traffic of Russian airlines in January-August decreased by almost 12% year-on-year and amounted to less than 63 million people.

Aeroflot remains the leader, almost reaching the level of 2021 (13.5 million people). S7 confirmed to Kommersant that they transported almost 10.7 million (minus 10%), in third place is Pobeda (7.8 million people, minus 18%), followed by Russia (5.6 million people, minus 11%). The top 5 is closed by Ural Airlines (5.5 million and minus 9.1%).

In order to achieve the 100 million people transportation plan set by the President of the Russian Federation at the end of the year, airlines need to carry almost the same number of passengers as in September-December 2021 (39.7 million people). However, experts and market participants interviewed by Kommersant do not expect an autumn surge in traffic. According to a pessimistic forecast, transportation will amount to just over 70 million people. According to one of Kommersant’s interlocutors, only the resumption of passenger flights to China could change the picture, for which it is necessary to remove covid restrictions in China and solve the problems of double registration of Russian aircraft. Igor Smirnov, senior director for corporate ratings at Expert RA, believes that even the opening of China “will not give a significant increase, given the lack of transit passengers who would fly there from Europe through Moscow.” The expert also does not see the potential to stimulate demand within the country through airline discounts.

The optimistic forecasts of Kommersant’s interlocutors range from 80 to 90 million people. Vice-President of the Russian Union of Travel Industry (PCT) Dmitry Gorin indicates that the effect of sales of carriers will be decisive. The driver, he believes, will be domestic tourism, but some demand will remain for Turkey, Egypt and the UAE. The total passenger traffic to these countries, the expert points out, will reach 5 million people this year, but foreign carriers “pull” part of the traffic. Flights to the CIS have tangible growth prospects, which will also improve the performance of Moscow airports.

The distribution of market shares between UIA airports has not fundamentally changed over the past three years, but Vnukovo and Sheremetyevo have recovered faster from covid.

During the pandemic, Domodedovo held on better due to the expansion of base carriers, primarily S7 and Ural Airlines, says Fyodor Borisov, an expert at the Institute for Transport Economics and Transport Policy at the Higher School of Economics. In addition, in 2021, he actively developed the Red Wings charter program to Turkey, but this year he decommissioned 11 Airbuses and transferred part of the flights to Sheremetyevo and Zhukovsky. The departure at the end of 2021 of the two largest global players – Qatar and Etihad – to Sheremetyevo, where Smartavia also transferred part of its flights, also had an effect.

In the foreseeable future, the position of Domodedovo in competition with Sheremetyevo and Vnukovo remains difficult, says Fedor Borisov. Competitors have more attractive logistics, he believes, recalling that at the end of 2019 an express bus was launched to Sheremetyevo from Khovrino, and it is planned to open a metro in Vnukovo in 2023.

Aigul Abdullina