Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for September 19-23 – Finance – Kommersant

Egor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst

The strengthening of the ruble will be clearly restrained

The dollar-ruble pair went beyond the lower limit of the usual range of 60-61 rubles. Throughout the week, the American currency tried to strengthen in the morning session, however, as large players entered the stock exchange, it began to decline. It is worth noting that the dollar’s trading activity was growing during the week, which suggests that exporters sold foreign exchange earnings on the market in the run-up to the tax period. On Friday, the Central Bank lowered the key rate by 50 bp, which was generally included in the quotes of the dollar-ruble pair. The dollar-ruble pair may move to the lower part of the range of 59-60 rubles. against the background of the expanded supply of foreign currency on the market due to exporters. However, the strengthening of the ruble will be clearly restrained. Starting from July, in the range of 59–60 rubles. dollar support levels are traced. From a fundamental point of view, the shrinking trade balance creates a certain parity between the supply and demand of the currency in this corridor, which makes a strong ruble appreciation unlikely.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

The Russian currency will begin to receive pronounced support from the tax period

Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar next week is 58-62. Pressure on risky assets may come from the Fed’s rate hike following Wednesday’s meeting, especially if it is higher than the +75 bp included in the baseline expectations. At the same time, the CBR on Friday lowered its key rate by 50 bp to 7.5%, which should also keep the ruble from strengthening. Next week, the Russian currency will begin to receive significant support from the tax period. If at the same time oil receives drivers for new price growth, the dollar may reach the zone of 58–59 rubles by the end of the month.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

Geopolitical reports continue to be in the center of close world attention

The decision to reduce the key rate by the Bank of Russia to 7.5% was expected by the market, so significant fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Russian ruble against this background are most likely not expected. The focus of investors is the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve next week, which is expected to raise the base rate. Uncertainty still reigns in the energy market due to pressure on gas prices due to the situation with the supply of this fuel from Russia. The publication of Eurostat about the acceleration of annual inflation in its 19 countries does not add optimism to the eurozone. Geopolitical reports, in which the degree of tension is rising, continue to be at the center of close world attention today.

The appetite for risk in the markets will depend on the rhetoric of the American regulator

Next week, we expect the smooth trend of ruble depreciation to continue and approach the upper limit of the range we indicated at 60–61.5 rubles/$. At the same time, the Russian currency will be supported by the beginning of exporters’ preparations for the tax period, the continued high oil prices and existing restrictions on the withdrawal of currency abroad. Of the important events next week, we single out the decision of the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate, which will take place on Wednesday. Market participants expect a rate increase of 0.75-1%. The appetite for risk in the markets will depend on the rhetoric of the US regulator, which in turn may put pressure on local currencies. There is a possibility of negative sentiment in the financial markets next week, as well as the strengthening of the dollar against other currencies. Nevertheless, these processes will exert less pressure on the ruble than on other local currencies.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

The ruble price of a barrel of Urals fell to a minimum in the last month

Ruble changes are minimal, despite the turbulence of global markets. The focus is not so much on external conjuncture as on Russian oil prices. The ruble price of a barrel of Urals dropped to a minimum over the past month. This may provoke the theme of the return of the budget rule, designed to form reserves in the currencies of “friendly” economies. With the expansion of the budget deficit until the end of the year, the fundamental pressure on the Russian currency will intensify, since the weakening of the ruble, along with the emission, can be used as tools to maintain the fiscal momentum.