Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for October 6-7 – Finance – Kommersant

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

Investors will focus on geopolitical news

Our forecast until the end of this week for the ruble against the dollar is 58-62. The EU’s agreement on a new package of anti-Russian sanctions, which, among other things, provides for the establishment of cap prices for Russian oil, increased uncertainty, putting pressure on all ruble assets. The suspension of the positive trend in the ruble debt market is also noteworthy, as indicated by the graph of the government bond index RGBI. In the short term, investors will focus on geopolitical news, the movement of oil prices and signals from the financial authorities.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

USD and EUR settlement risk has not materialized yet

The ruble is returning to the levels that preceded the announcement of new restrictions on the Russian Federation. Settlement risk in dollars and euros has not materialized yet, allowing market participants to return to buying them at attractive rates. The rhetoric of the financial authorities boils down to intentions to weaken the ruble through the purchase of foreign currency for additional oil revenues. In addition, since the beginning of autumn, there has been an increase in importers and a decrease in export flows. All this indicates that in the medium term the ruble will look weaker than the current levels by at least 5-10%.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

The focus is on the discussion of the prospects for establishing a price ceiling for Russian oil

The Russian ruble shows weakening, declining against the main world currencies. The focus is on the discussion of the prospects for establishing a price ceiling for Russian oil. All this is not in favor of the ruble. Against the US dollar – news that the US national debt has exceeded $31 trillion for the first time amid the Fed’s ongoing attempts to cope with rising inflation. As well as reports of a decrease in oil reserves in America. Meanwhile, the energy market is actively discussing the possibility of reducing oil production at the upcoming OPEC + meeting. Data on the growth of average daily oil production in Russia adds a little optimism. Geopolitics continues to run a red line throughout the global economy.

We mark the correction of the dollar from its highs

Until the end of the week, we forecast trading in the range of 59.0–60.5 rubles/$. We observe an increase in demand for the currency after the clarification of new restrictions on the Russian Federation. The mood on world markets is moderately optimistic amid expectations of a possible halt in the tightening of monetary policy in the US. We note the correction of the dollar from its highs. Until the end of the week, we are waiting for the publication of the minutes of the previous ECB meeting, which will clarify the further direction of the monetary policy of the European regulator. We add that the ruble is still receiving support from high oil prices.