Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for May 29–June 2

Dollar exchange rate.  Forecast for May 29–June 2

Last week, volatility in the foreign exchange market declined markedly. Throughout the week, the dollar exchange rate was trading in a narrow range of 79.73–80.48 rubles/$, and at the end of the week it amounted to 80.06 rubles/$. This is only 6 kopecks. higher than the previous week's close. The behavior of the exchange rate was determined by both external and internal factors, including the preparation of companies for the next tax period.

Banks Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$)
Russian Standard Bank 79.50-81.00
Expobank 79.00-81.00
BCS World of Investments 78.00-81.00
Bank Zenith 80.00
Consensus forecast * 79.94

* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts' forecasts

Vladimir Evstifeev

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

The domestic foreign exchange market is in equilibrium with reduced trading activity

The ruble continues to consolidate around the level of 80 rubles/$. The Russian currency is weakly reacting to the global strengthening of the dollar against the backdrop of risks associated with the ceiling of the US government debt and the "hawkish" rhetoric of the representatives of the Federal Reserve. The domestic foreign exchange market is in a state of equilibrium with reduced trading activity. The peak of tax payments falls on Monday, but the presence of exporters in the market is still invisible. The factor of tax payments may support the ruble at the beginning of the week, but then it will cease to influence exchange rates, which will contribute to continued consolidation in the range of 79.5–80.5 rubles/$.

Denis Buivolov

Denis Buivolov,

An important external intrigue is the election of the President of Turkey

Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar for the next week is 78-81. Neither the rise in oil prices nor the approach to the tax period could significantly affect the positions of the Russian currency. The next week will show in which direction the currency pair will move out of the consolidation zone. The chances for a moderate strengthening of the ruble prevail. First, one of these days, the story with the increase in the US national debt ceiling should end - a likely favorable outcome can support all risk assets. The second important external intrigue is the election of the President of Turkey. This country is one of the main trade and economic partners of Russia. The second round of elections will take place on Sunday, May 28. The victory of the incumbent president is able to strengthen the confidence of the ruble.

Polina Khvoynitskaya,
Head of Investment Strategy and Analytics

Of the important events, we single out the meeting of the monitoring committee of OPEC and OPEC +,

Until the end of next week, we forecast trading in the dollar/ruble pair in the range of 79.0-81 rubles/$ with a weakening trend for the Russian currency. This week ends the period of converting foreign exchange earnings to pay taxes by exporters, and, therefore, the ruble will lose support for this factor. Of the important events before the end of the week, we highlight the meeting of the monitoring committee of OPEC and OPEC +, which will be held on Sunday. News about the next reduction in oil production will support oil quotes, which, in turn, will bring support to the Russian currency. The negative option provides for the absence of an agreement on another reduction in oil production and, as a result, negative pressure on the currencies of oil-producing countries, including the ruble. Although this will affect the Russian currency to a lesser extent.

Maxim Timoshenko

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

Adds uncertainty to the global market still unresolved issue with the US public debt

As support for the Russian ruble, the results of recent months on the development of new sales markets and the redirection of logistics flows can act. Despite the instability of the business activity index, it is at a good level and indicates optimism in the manufacturing sector. At the beginning of the coming week, the ruble will also rely on the culminating sale of foreign exchange earnings within the tax period. The dollar shows strengthening against the backdrop of the release of relatively optimistic data on the US statistics after a cycle of active rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Oil quotes, meanwhile, against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar at the end of the working week, are declining. Adds uncertainty in the world market is still unresolved issue with the US public debt.

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