Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for March 20-24 - Finance - Kommersant
Over the past week, the US dollar has significantly strengthened its position in the Russian market. As a result of Friday trading on the Moscow Exchange, the dollar closed at 77.06 rubles/$, which is almost 1 ruble. higher than the previous week's close. This is partly due to the dynamics of the global foreign exchange market, but the ruble exchange rate is also under pressure from internal factors: a decrease in export earnings entering the country.
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| PSB | 77.00 |
| BCS World of Investments | 75.50-77.50 |
| Bank Zenith | 76.50 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 76.50-78.00 |
| Expobank | 75.50-78.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 76.80 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts' forecasts
The geopolitical situation and the rhetoric of world leaders are still one of the decisive
The ruble may be supported by tax payments in the coming week. Friday's decision by the Russian regulator to leave the key rate unchanged will not cause sharp fluctuations in the financial market, as it was expected by its participants. At the same time, the tightening of the monetary policy at the next meetings may have a positive effect on the exchange rate of the Russian currency. Once again, the focus is on the prospects of the digital ruble in Russia and the upcoming launch of pilot projects with it. At the same time, statements that inflation in the eurozone is still high are not in favor of the euro. And as a result, the increase of all three key interest rates by the European Central Bank by 50 basis points. The geopolitical situation and the rhetoric of world leaders is still one of the decisive economic factors today.
The approach of the tax period can mitigate the negative from foreign market and geopolitical collisions
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar next week is 75.5-77.5. Global risk appetite remains under strong pressure from fears that US banking problems will escalate into a major financial crisis. Against that background, Brent quotes are slipping lower and lower. Together with the plans of the G7 to continue lowering the price ceiling for Russian oil, this does not form the most favorable scenario for the Russian currency. The approach of the tax period, which in terms of the volume of payments may exceed the February figures by 60–70%, can mitigate the negative from external market and geopolitical collisions.
The nearest target in the dollar/ruble pair could be the level of 77 rubles.
The attempt of the ruble to strengthen against the backdrop of the global weakness of the dollar was not successful. The Russian currency is losing ground as support from fundamental factors such as export earnings inflows and capital transactions declines. The results of the CBR meeting look neutral for the domestic foreign exchange market, as they are in line with average market expectations and do not imply any significant changes in the key rate. The nearest target in the dollar/ruble pair may be the level of 77 rubles, however, as the tax period approaches, the ruble may restore some positions.
Focus on Wednesday's Fed meeting
The dollar on Friday rises in price, coming close to the mark of 77 rubles. Volatility in the foreign exchange market intensified in the second half of the week. The key pressure on the positions of the ruble was exerted by the correction of oil quotes on global markets due to a decrease in risk appetite due to the growing likelihood of a financial crisis in the United States. Next week, the dollar / ruble pair will return to the range of 74-76 rubles. The key factors to support the ruble will be the activation of exporters in anticipation of the upcoming tax payments, as well as the recovery of oil prices, which are currently noticeably oversold. The focus will be on the Fed meeting on Wednesday, which is likely to result in an increase in risk appetite, and, accordingly, interest in the currencies of developing countries.
