Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for March 20-24 - Finance - Kommersant

Dollar exchange rate.  Forecast for March 20-24 - Finance - Kommersant

Over the past week, the US dollar has significantly strengthened its position in the Russian market. As a result of Friday trading on the Moscow Exchange, the dollar closed at 77.06 rubles/$, which is almost 1 ruble. higher than the previous week's close. This is partly due to the dynamics of the global foreign exchange market, but the ruble exchange rate is also under pressure from internal factors: a decrease in export earnings entering the country.

Banks Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$)
PSB 77.00
BCS World of Investments 75.50-77.50
Bank Zenith 76.50
Russian Standard Bank 76.50-78.00
Expobank 75.50-78.00
Consensus forecast * 76.80

* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts' forecasts

Polina Khvoynitskaya,
Head of Investment Strategy and Analytics

Some support for the national currency should be provided by sales of foreign exchange earnings by exporters

Until the end of next week, we expect trading in the range of 75.5-78 rubles/$. The ruble accelerated its decline on Friday. The reason could be the completion of the terms of circulation of derivative financial instruments both on the Russian and foreign markets. From the beginning of next week, the national currency should be supported by sales of foreign exchange earnings by exporters as part of the preparation of companies for paying taxes. Also, support for the national currency should be the news on the recommendations on dividends from the Russian "blue chips". Dividends are higher than the expectations of market participants, so a part of them may be transferred to ruble assets from foreign currency. Of the important events before the end of the week, we single out the decision of the US Federal Reserve on the dollar rate. Market participants expect it to increase by 25 bp. p., up to 5%. If the regulator shows harsh rhetoric, then another risk-off will take place on the markets, which will put pressure on all local currencies, including the ruble.

Maxim Timoshenko

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

The geopolitical situation and the rhetoric of world leaders are still one of the decisive

The ruble may be supported by tax payments in the coming week. Friday's decision by the Russian regulator to leave the key rate unchanged will not cause sharp fluctuations in the financial market, as it was expected by its participants. At the same time, the tightening of the monetary policy at the next meetings may have a positive effect on the exchange rate of the Russian currency. Once again, the focus is on the prospects of the digital ruble in Russia and the upcoming launch of pilot projects with it. At the same time, statements that inflation in the eurozone is still high are not in favor of the euro. And as a result, the increase of all three key interest rates by the European Central Bank by 50 basis points. The geopolitical situation and the rhetoric of world leaders is still one of the decisive economic factors today.

Denis Buivolov

Denis Buivolov,

The approach of the tax period can mitigate the negative from foreign market and geopolitical collisions

Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar next week is 75.5-77.5. Global risk appetite remains under strong pressure from fears that US banking problems will escalate into a major financial crisis. Against that background, Brent quotes are slipping lower and lower. Together with the plans of the G7 to continue lowering the price ceiling for Russian oil, this does not form the most favorable scenario for the Russian currency. The approach of the tax period, which in terms of the volume of payments may exceed the February figures by 60–70%, can mitigate the negative from external market and geopolitical collisions.

Vladimir Evstifeev

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

The nearest target in the dollar/ruble pair could be the level of 77 rubles.

The attempt of the ruble to strengthen against the backdrop of the global weakness of the dollar was not successful. The Russian currency is losing ground as support from fundamental factors such as export earnings inflows and capital transactions declines. The results of the CBR meeting look neutral for the domestic foreign exchange market, as they are in line with average market expectations and do not imply any significant changes in the key rate. The nearest target in the dollar/ruble pair may be the level of 77 rubles, however, as the tax period approaches, the ruble may restore some positions.

Egor Zhilnikov

Egor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst

Focus on Wednesday's Fed meeting

The dollar on Friday rises in price, coming close to the mark of 77 rubles. Volatility in the foreign exchange market intensified in the second half of the week. The key pressure on the positions of the ruble was exerted by the correction of oil quotes on global markets due to a decrease in risk appetite due to the growing likelihood of a financial crisis in the United States. Next week, the dollar / ruble pair will return to the range of 74-76 rubles. The key factors to support the ruble will be the activation of exporters in anticipation of the upcoming tax payments, as well as the recovery of oil prices, which are currently noticeably oversold. The focus will be on the Fed meeting on Wednesday, which is likely to result in an increase in risk appetite, and, accordingly, interest in the currencies of developing countries.

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