Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for February 06-10 – Finance – Kommersant

Egor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst

The government will continue to sell foreign currency to keep the ruble from noticeable fluctuations

Last week, the dollar exchange rate mainly played out volatility in the derivatives market, trading in the range of 70–71 rubles. It should be noted that in the second half of the week trading volumes on the foreign exchange market decreased, which is typical for the beginning of the month due to the reduced activity of exporters. We believe that next week the dollar will try to overcome the mark of 71 rubles. and gain a foothold in the range of 71-73 rubles. The key driver of the weakening of the national currency will be the introduction of a price ceiling for oil products from the Russian Federation on February 5. Also in the spotlight will be the decision of the Ministry of Finance to continue the functioning of the modified budget rule. We believe that the government will continue to sell foreign currency in order to keep the ruble from significant fluctuations.

The course will continue to move smoothly towards the level of 71 rubles / $

Until the end of next week, we expect the main trades in the ruble-dollar pair in the range of 70.0-72.0 rubles/$. From the point of view of technical analysis, the rate once again tested the level of 70.75 rubles/$ on Friday. It already reached this level at the end of January, but this time it seems that there will be no return movement and the rate will continue to move smoothly towards the mark of 71 rubles / $. Positive on the markets after the meeting of the US Federal Reserve subsided by the end of the week, and some market participants decided to fix profitable positions. This factor also put pressure on the ruble. Of the important events before the end of next week, we highlight the decision of the Bank of Russia on the key rate.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

Not in favor of the ruble – the current instability of oil prices

As a support for the Russian ruble at the moment, there is a significant increase in the volume of sales of yuan under the budget rule against the backdrop of a reduction in oil and gas revenues. Not in favor of the ruble – the current instability of oil prices. The focus is on the conclusion of an agreement between the EU countries on setting marginal prices for Russian oil products. In the event of a reduction in oil exports, this could put significant pressure on the Russian ruble. However, in the energy market, an increase in oil demand from China is expected against the background of the weakening of quarantine measures in it.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

Foreign exchange earnings losses will not be high

Despite the end of the tax period, the ruble suffered only moderate losses. Two main events are in focus: the introduction of EU restrictions on the supply of petroleum products from the Russian Federation, and the amount of currency purchases by the Ministry of Finance under the budget rule for the next period. Establishing limits on oil products may put pressure on the national currency in the short term, but the loss of foreign exchange earnings will not be high. In addition, the Treasury effectively tripled the amount of daily RMB sales under the fiscal rule. The new volume is 8.9 billion rubles. per day is almost 14% of the average trading volume of the ruble-yuan pair on the Moscow Exchange, which looks significant and may limit the losses of the ruble during the week.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

The base short-term scenario provides for a restrained weakening of the Russian currency

Our forecast for the ruble/dollar exchange rate for next week is 69–72 rubles/$. The Russian Ministry of Finance announced on Friday that it had almost tripled sales of yuan from February 7 to March 6, to 8.9 billion per day in ruble terms from 3.2 billion in the previous period. The ruble hardly reacted to this news, as the volume of interventions relative to the total average daily turnover in yuan, dollars and euros paired with the ruble on the Moscow Exchange will still be small (4.4%), while the negative factor for the reduction in oil and gas revenues is more strong and significant for the exchange rate dynamics of the ruble. Thus, the basic short-term scenario provides for a restrained weakening of the Russian currency.