Discount consolidated on the secondary market - Business - Kommersant

Discount consolidated on the secondary market - Business - Kommersant



In conditions of limited demand and unwillingness of owners to reduce the cost of housing in ads, average prices in the secondary markets of the country's largest cities remain stable. The real value of real estate is regulated by a discount, which in the regions averages 6%, and in Moscow it reaches 15%. Large discounts are due to the strategy of buyers-investors who bought apartments before the price boom, and are now interested in selling them quickly. Despite the expected decline in mortgage rates and a recovery in demand, analysts do not expect a noticeable increase in average housing prices until the end of the year.

The average cost of secondary real estate in the 18 largest regional markets of Russia (16 million-plus cities, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in September amounted to 122.3 thousand rubles. per sq. m, compared to the previous month, the figure increased by 0.4%. Such data are provided by the experts of CIAN.Analytics, indicating that the dynamics of prices as a whole is weakly expressed. The company "Etazhi" also noticed slight fluctuations: the national average of secondary real estate rose by 0.12% over the month, to 92.96 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In annual terms, the dynamics amounted to 19.45%.

The most pronounced growth average prices for secondary housing for the month, according to CIAN.Analysts, there was in Krasnoyarsk: the indicator increased by 2%, to 98.6 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In Perm dynamics amounted to 1.6%, up to 83.9 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In "Floors" they note an increase of 0.16% In Volgograd, up to 76.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Simultaneously in St. Petersburg, according to analysts' estimates, the average cost of the offer for the month decreased by 0.14%, to 191 thousand rubles. per sq. m.

Within the boundaries of old Moscow secondary housing in the mass segment now costs an average of 281.6 thousand rubles. per sq. m, according to the data of the company "Inkom-real estate". Over the month, this value, according to analysts, remained virtually unchanged, and over the year it increased by 3.1%. Now prices are mainly regulated by a discount, the average size of which is 15%, says Sergey Shloma, Director of the Secondary Market Department at Inkom-Nedvizhimost. “People tend to inflate prices relative to market values, but sellers understand that in an overheated market, prices should decrease,” he argues.

On the elite market of Moscow the average cost of secondary housing, according to the CEO of Apple Real Estate Danila Savchenko, is 600-800 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Since the spring, according to him, the average prices have fallen by about 5%, but in this market, the owners are also going to provide discounts. The average size of discounts in the elite housing segment, according to Mr. Savchenko, is 5%, 15-20% can be expected if the owner is in a hurry to sell or offers an apartment with obvious shortcomings.

The restrained recovery of potential demand in the market of the largest cities as a whole continues: according to the calculations of CIAN.Analytics, now the number of ad views and calls to them is 17% higher than the background values ​​of 2022, while at the peak of the decline in May, it was a lag by 40%. This contributes to a decrease in the growth rate of supply. Over the past month, according to Alexei Popov, head of CIAN.Analytics, the number of lots sold increased by 2%, while at the beginning of summer the dynamics was 10-15% per month.

But the growth in supply continues to outstrip the dynamics of demand, and the average size of discounts over the past month has reached a record 6%, says Ildar Khusainov, Director of Floors. The expert draws attention to the fact that there are a lot of sellers on the market who are interested in the urgent sale of objects, which puts pressure on prices. Such transactions, according to him, often still turn out to be beneficial for the owners. “Many investors bought housing even before the sharp rise in prices, which over the past two years amounted to 40%, they are in a good plus even with discounts,” says Mr. Khusainov.

At the same time, the expert calls the situation heterogeneous: there are also owners who are in no hurry, setting prices for their properties 5-10% higher than the market.

The secondary housing market is now in anticipation of the impact of the decision of the Central Bank about lowering the key rate on the terms of mortgage programs, says Alexei Popov. More favorable rates for ready-made housing, according to the expert, will lead to the continuation of the trend to restore demand due to the return of mortgage buyers to the market. Although, from the point of view of the latter, according to Mr. Khusainov, it is more profitable to buy an apartment at a discount before the massive improvement in loan conditions, and then refinance the loan. “Sharp rate cuts could trigger a new wave of demand and price increases that minimize the benefit of low rates,” he says.

Although Alexei Popov does not expect a quick return to pre-crisis levels of demand anyway, pointing out that macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties remain on the agenda. Due to this, the expert predicts that near-zero dynamics of offer prices and widespread discounts will continue in the market in the near future. Ildar Khusainov agrees that the average cost of secondary housing will remain volatile at least until the end of the year, and the wave of demand dictated by lower mortgage rates will be short-term.

Alexandra Mertsalova



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