Depoliticization helped mobilization

Almost two-thirds (64%) of Russians support the decision on partial mobilization, but only a third of respondents believe that it can affect them, the Russian Field sociological service found out. This is the first poll in which sociologists have tried to find out whether the attitude of Russians to the special military operation (SVO) in Ukraine has changed after the announcement of partial mobilization. As it turned out, the proportion of supporters of peace negotiations slightly increased and practically equaled the percentage of those wishing to continue the NWO. However, experts urge to treat the interpretation of the results of this study “carefully”.

64% of respondents support the decision on partial mobilization, and 31% do not support it, follows from the results of a survey conducted by the Russian Field service on September 29-October 1 (1610 respondents took part in the all-Russian telephone survey, the statistical error is no higher than 2.5%) . The level of support for mobilization grows with age: if among young people (18–26 years old) 56% of those surveyed oppose partial mobilization, then in the category over 44 years old, this decision of the president is supported by over 70%. Among the arguments in favor of mobilization, respondents most often named the need to defend the homeland (56%), the army’s need for more people (22%), the need to complete the NMD faster (22%) and trust in the decisions of the head of state (10%). The counter-arguments were the theses that professionals should fight (67%), as well as fear for themselves, relatives and friends (16%) and anxiety for the mobilized in general (13%).

At the same time, only 30% of Russians believe that they can fall under mobilization, and 63% are convinced that it will not affect them. Among men, the share of those who see themselves as mobilized reaches 48%, among women – 10%. The leading behavioral strategy when receiving a mobilization summons is to appear at the military registration and enlistment office to be sent to the army: 62% of the men surveyed confidently say that they will do just that, and another 15% name this option as the most likely. Another 11% expect to prove that they are not subject to mobilization. 4% of the men surveyed intend to ignore the agenda or leave the country. At the same time, 15% of respondents say that there are people in their environment who have already left or are planning to do so: compared to March 2022, the number of such answers increased by 5 percentage points. Most of those leaving or planning to leave are among young people (under 34 years old) and people with incomplete higher education.

The accession of the DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions to Russia is supported by 77% of respondents, only 16% of respondents opposed such a decision. The level of support depends on age: it is highest (86%) in the category of 60 years and older. True, only 62% of respondents declared the admissibility of referendums in territories where hostilities have not yet ended (it was on the basis of the results of such plebiscites that decisions were made to admit four regions to the Russian Federation), and 27% of respondents do not support this idea.

Compared to July, the number of those who advocate the continuation of the NWO has decreased by 6 percentage points: now 46% are sure of the need for this. The number of those who declare the need to move to peace negotiations has proportionally increased: now there are 44%. Respondents mostly have negative feelings about the participation of relatives and friends in SVO: 32% say that it causes them anxiety, worry, excitement or anxiety. Pride is experienced by 15%, and only 2% remembered the feeling of patriotism. At the same time, the proportion of supporters of the continuation of SVR is one and a half times higher among men than among women, and grows from younger to older ages. In favor of the transition to peace negotiations, on the contrary, young people are more likely to speak out.

Sociologists also found out that 60% of respondents are ready to support a new attack on Kyiv if Vladimir Putin announces it “tomorrow”, which corresponds to the July measurement. 28% opposed. At the same time, the president’s decision to sign a peace agreement tomorrow and stop the special operation would be approved by 75% of respondents, which is 10 percentage points more than two months ago. The number of opponents of such a decision has decreased by the same amount – they are now 18%.

The logic of “supporting any decision of the head of state” was also traced in the Russian Field summer polls, recalls Mikhail Vinogradov, head of the Petersburg Politics Foundation. He sees this as a consequence of a long-term trend towards depoliticization: people have ceased to strive to form a political position. The intrigue is whether the mobilization has changed something here or not, the expert rhetorically asks. In his opinion, this will become clear later, after conducting qualitative research (focus groups): quantitative sociology has an indicative value, but given the statistics of citizens’ refusals to participate in surveys, its significance has noticeably fallen in recent years. At the same time, the growth in the number of supporters of peace talks is “quite natural,” the political scientist believes, given the growing anxiety due to mobilization, as well as the decrease in victorious feelings in society and on the agenda.

Political scientist Ekaterina Kurbangaleeva warns that the interpretation of the current study should be approached carefully, since it is now especially difficult to follow all the formal procedures when conducting a nationwide poll. At present, there is a sharp “correction of the sample due to those leaving the country,” the expert explains: the majority of those who are dissatisfied have left or are leaving, and those who remain, against this background, prefer to refuse to answer questions. “If we assume that the methodology and procedure are followed correctly, then we must remember that now people tend to give defensive, socially approved answers. In addition, many still perceive the situation as unrealistic for themselves. And socially approved answers become a kind of psychological defense,” summarizes Ms. Kurbangaleeva.

Anastasia Kornya, Andrey Vinokurov