Currency is discounted – Newspaper Kommersant No. 176 (7377) of 09/23/2022

The exchange rate of the dollar for the first time in two months closed below the level of 59 rubles/$. The two-month minimum updated the euro. The strengthening of the ruble was facilitated by the increased supply of foreign currency by exporters who are preparing to pay taxes. The supply of currencies from “unfriendly” countries is also growing on the part of private investors, who are concerned about the increased risks of blocking foreign currency accounts.

The game to increase the leading currencies at the morning session of the Moscow Exchange on Thursday, September 22, was not successful. At the beginning of the day, the dollar rose by 55 kopecks to 61.25 rubles/$, but with the start of the main session, it went down sharply and by 10:10 was back below the values ​​of the previous day’s close. At 17:40, the American currency exchange rate dropped to 58.56 rubles/$, the lowest value since August 19. As a result of trading, it stopped at 58.75 rubles/$, having lost 1.94 rubles during the day. The euro exchange rate fell by 2.48 rubles during the day, to 57.67 rubles / €, and returned to the values ​​of the end of July.

The fall in rates occurred with increased activity of market participants. According to the Moscow Exchange, the volume of transactions with the dollar for delivery “tomorrow” amounted to almost 124 billion rubles, the highest result since August 12. The volume of trading with the euro increased by one and a half times compared to the previous day and reached 71 billion rubles. At the same time, the volume of trading with the Chinese currency showed the second result in history – 86.6 billion rubles, slightly losing to the record figure of the previous day (see chart). “Kommersant” dated September 21).

The strengthening of the Russian currency occurred against the backdrop of an increased supply of foreign currency during the tax period.

By Monday, companies must pay the MET, VAT and excise taxes totaling more than 1.6 trillion rubles to the budget, which, according to Zenit Bank estimates, is 15% more than similar payments in August. “A full-fledged weakening of the ruble on the news of partial mobilization in the Russian Federation did not happen, which probably provoked an increase in the supply of foreign currency from exporters,” said Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the bank’s analytical department.

Additional pressure on foreign exchange rates is exerted by the aggravation of the geopolitical situation. If a day earlier this news caused a short-term increase in demand for currencies, then on Thursday their supply from private investors increased. According to Oleg Syrovatkin, Leading Analyst at the Otkritie Investments Global Research Department, the prospects for new sanctions against Russia, which EU representatives are talking about, could force some investors to sell the currency of “unfriendly” countries (dollar, euro, etc.), fearing it frosts. “Russian companies and citizens still have tens of billions of dollars in reserves of such a currency, which creates a potential overhang in the market and may contribute to the strengthening of the ruble,” said Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank.

Market participants expect that the ruble will continue to strengthen in the coming days under the influence of an excess supply of foreign currency.

According to Mikhail Vasiliev, by the end of September the dollar exchange rate may fall to 55 rubles/$, the euro exchange rate to 54 rubles/€. However, after the tax period has passed, foreign exchange rates may rise again. Sales by private investors may also decline, provided that sanctions risks do not materialize in the coming days. “Mid- and long-term prospects for the ruble exchange rate against “toxic” currencies will most likely continue to be determined by the dynamics of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation and the prospects for launching an updated budget rule,” Oleg Syrovatkin believes. According to him, the dollar exchange rate may rise to 69 rubles/$ by the end of the year. However, until the announcement of the parameters of the updated budget rule, according to Vladimir Evstifeev, the dollar exchange rate will remain around the level of 60 rubles/$.

Vitaly Gaidaev