Crisis rented equipment

Crisis rented equipment



The first systematic assessments of the impact of the current crisis on the leasing business have appeared. Thus, in the first half of the year the volume of new business fell by 19%. This is due to the disruption of logistics, the suspension of some investment projects, the withdrawal of foreign manufacturers and suppliers of machinery and equipment from the Russian market. Experts note that already in the third quarter, some segments began to recover against the backdrop of working with new brands, establishing logistics and stabilizing the key rate. But at the end of the year, the market will show a fall.

"Kommersant" got acquainted with the report "Expert RA" on the results of the work of leasing companies in the Russian Federation in the first half of the year. The volume of their new business decreased by 19% yoy to RUB 770 billion. The corporate segment showed a 30% drop. However, if the volume of new business with sea and river vessels decreased by 94%, and air transport - by 14%, then the railway segment showed an increase of 7% due to separate transactions for the sale of the fleet between large players.

“Due to the break in the previously existing supply chains and the departure of a number of large foreign manufacturers of machinery and equipment from Russia, the leasing industry faced a shortage of equipment (see “Kommersant” dated May 28.— "b") and, as a result, an increase in its cost,” the authors of the study explain. Additional pressure on demand from lessees in early spring was exerted by a sharp increase in the key rate (in March, the rate rose to 20%, after several cuts it remains at 8%). The companies also faced delays in deliveries: there were problems with already ordered foreign property, says Maxim Kalinkin, head of the Gazprombank Leasing group.

The retail segment of car leasing almost recovered by August, mainly due to changes in the structure of the car market in the passenger and truck segments, says Roman Valkov, head of digital sales channels at Alfa-Leasing Group. The supply from Chinese brands is growing, the volume of production of Russian equipment is being restored, car prices are falling, he explains. The demand for commercial vehicles is supported by a subsidy from the Ministry of Industry and Trade for wheeled vehicles. Also, adds Mr. Valkov, customers are increasingly looking towards used cars - mainly due to the reduction in the supply of new cars and the still high price of similar new cars.

For the second half of the year, experts give very cautious forecasts, but they are waiting for the market to stabilize, albeit not recovering to last year's figures. “The investment activity of the business remains rather weak, the deficit of certain types of equipment also continues to have a deterrent effect due to the sanctions of foreign states,” said Mikhail Doronkin, managing director of the NKR rating agency. According to Gazprombank Leasing, in general, the decline in the leasing market will be about 20% by 2021. Zoya Sovetkina, junior director for banking ratings at Expert RA, also believes that the annual result will be negative, although some segments may show positive dynamics. “Companies have changed their brand portfolios, the key rate of the Central Bank has stabilized, prices are no longer so volatile,” she points out.

Restrictions on automobile, air and sea foreign trade transportation stimulate the development of railway leasing, Ms. Sovetkina believes. In addition, the rolling stock was less affected than other segments of the transport industry, points out Maxim Kalinkin. “Practically all freight cars are produced in Russia. We can say that the railway industry is almost independent of foreign components,” he explains. In the retail segment, “used cars will most likely be the only growing segment in terms of the number of transactions,” Mr. Valkov is sure. However, according to Europlan, the drivers of growth in the second half of the year will be the segments of trucks and special equipment.

Polina Trifonova



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