Crisis of sad buyers

Crisis of sad buyers



Crowds in stores, instant growth in retailers' turnover and news about running out of goods are the usual background that traditionally develops in consumer markets in the early stages of any crisis. It is worth recalling the rush sales of equipment during the currency fluctuations of 2014-2015, the annual stocks of buckwheat and ginger made by the Russians at the beginning of the pandemic. The most recent example is March of this year, when sugar, sanitary pads and diapers, and furniture from IKEA leaving Russia were in special esteem among consumers. The excitement of consumers often becomes the subject of jokes in the professional community, but it solves an important task for business - it helps to smooth out the crisis drop in demand.

In the first week of partial mobilization, we witnessed not an increase, but a decrease in traffic in shopping centers. The Focus Technologies Mall Index in Moscow fell by 4% compared to the previous week, tour sales fell by 35%, restaurants lost 17% of guests, and the turnover of fitness clubs fell by 25%. The queues in the shops are only for military uniforms.

The reason for the overall decline is obvious - the information background, which reduced the willingness of consumers to emotional purchases. The negative mood of the saddened Russians should hardly be underestimated - it is partly from it that their inflationary expectations are formed and large retail chains build their development plans. Market signals, most likely, are about to see.

Forecasts for this year and earlier could hardly be called rosy. In mid-September, Infoline expected a decline in retail turnover by 8-12% for the year. And individual players have already begun to adjust their development strategies. Thus, one large grocery chain closed several dozen outlets in the first half of the year. The reaction of other players was not so lightning fast, but 30% of existing stores of the largest chains are already called potentially problematic in Infoline.

It is not surprising if a new round of the crisis will give retailers a completely unambiguous signal: to stop all development plans that have been kept since March. Infoline is also preparing to revise its forecast for retail turnover downwards. At least due to the fact that the number of active consumers will be reduced by 300,000 - that is how many citizens will be mobilized, as Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said. And it is still unknown what will be the consumer activity of their family members.



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